Barcelona and Atletico Madrid are level on points at the top of La Liga, and following the clash between these two, we may well see Barcelona lose the lead that they have held since the very first week of the season. Barcelona has 38 points and a goal difference of +30, whereas Atletico have 38 points and only +20. Should this game end a draw, Real Madrid (37 points +21 GD) could overtake both teams and take the top spot. Facing Sevilla at home, they are in pole position to do so.
The stakes couldn’t be higher for Barcelona, and on the back of only 1 win in 6 games, they must bounce back here. Lamine Yamal is the latest top player to join the sidelines, having picked up an injury in their defeat to Leganes last weekend. He joins Andreas Christensen, Ansu Fati and Marc Bernal. Atletico, on the other hand, will be rubbing their hands in glee. On the back of 6 consecutive La Liga wins, it seems Diego Simeone is practically unstoppable at the moment.
Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid Clasico
December 21 Saturday 20:00 @ Olimpic Lluis Companys
In their head to head games, Barcelona have won 5 of the last 6 of these Clasicos. The last time Atletico Madrid won was back in 2021, and that was at home. This will be Hansi Flick’s first game as Barcelona coach vs Diego Simeone, and while Flick has managed to bring Barcelona to whole new heights, the performances of late have been well under par. Antoine Griezmann, Alexander Sorloth and Julian Alvarez have scored a combined 19 goals, but more impressively, Atletico have the tightest defense in the league.
They have only conceded 11 goals in 17 games, and conceded 5 goals in their 8 away games. Lewandowski has scored 16 for Barca, but in recent weeks he has failed to hit the mark. For a game of this magnitude, the Polish striker will surely give that extra push and try to get on the scoring sheet. Between him and Raphinha, Barcelona have a devastating attacking force, but the omission of Lamine Yamal may hurt their chances.
Bet Builder Picks for Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid
Despite Barcelona’s injury woes and recent form, they are the favourites to win the Clasico. The temptation to bet against Barcelona is not unfounded, they have not kept a cleansheet since their 4-0 thriller against Real Madrid in October. Atletico have the best defense in the league, and chances will not come easily.
Barcelona Moneyline @ 10/11
Atletico Madrid Moneyline @ 11/4
Draw @ 11/4
The odds on Atletico are just as long as the odds on a draw. And before you ask: Double Chance Draw or Atletico @ 10/11. Betting against Barcelona would certainly pay off handsomely, but can Diego Simeone pull it off?
Betting on Goals
The midway betting line that the oddsmakers have drawn for goals scored is 2.5 goals, the margin between the odds over and under are the smallest.
Over 2.5 Goals @ 3/5
Under 2.5 Goals @ 13/10
It is quite a reasonable assessment considering Barcelona’s attacking worries and the Atletico defense. This game has the potential to swing either way – either ending with both teams scoring and a combined score of 3+ or see both managers emphasizing defense and few or no goals scored.
We reckon that Atletico will score in this game, regardless of whether they win, draw or lose the game. Barcelona are without a clean sheet in 7 games, and the multifaceted nature of Atletico’s scoring gives them enough options to overwhelm the patchy Barca defense. Barcelona will surely respond, as they have scored an average of 2.7 goals per home game. We will bet Over the line and also add in a BTTS prediction.
Over 2.5 Goals @ 3/5
BTTS @ 11/20
Other Props
Betting on the number of corners is an intriguing market for this game. Of Atletico’s past 4 games, only one has ended with 10+ corners. Barcelona does not win corners much either. Corners open possibilities that don’t come in open play, and given Atletico’s defense and Barcelona’s eagerness to win at home, they can be invaluable. However, our experts don’t really see either team notching up a big corner tally. Betting under a relatively high line of 10.5 corners come at a generous price.
Under 10.5 Corners @ 8/15
Potential Goal Scorers
Sorloth has the shortest odds among the Atletico Madrid goalscorer markets, and is priced at a generous 2/1. Julian Alvarez is next, at 13/2 and then Griezmann is priced at 7/1. While Sorloth is the out and out striker, Atletico’s attack is quite complex and when push comes to shove in big games, any player can step up to score. Correa scored the equaliser vs Real Madrid and the important last minute goal against Bilbao. Instead, we will focus on Barcelona’s players.
In Barcelona, it is really a bet on either Lewandowski or Raphinha, who have scored 16 and 11, respectively. Lewandowski is a tricky pick, as he generally plays around 60-70 minutes, but given the magnitude of this game, Flick will likely keep him on the field until Barcelona have established a comfortable lead. We are backing the penalty taker and big match player, Lewandowski, to score in this game.
Robert Lewandowski Anytime Scorer @ 11/10
Picking the Outcome
Now down to the business. While Barcelona are the favourites to win here, we think the odds on Atletico are just too good to miss. They are the team in form, they don’t have any injury setbacks, and they have the more experienced La Liga manager. Atletico are more than capable of scrambling together to get a goal and then sit on their defensive line and fend off Barcelona. Hansi Flick will need to make do with what he has, and surprise Atletico in the same way that he shook the Santiago Bernabeu in October.
Atletico Madrid or Draw @ 10/11
BettingTools Barcelona vs Atletico Clasico Picks
We will divide our picks into two bet builders, with no interference so you can win on either (or both). If you want to include more picks or use a different combination, you can use our accumulator calculator to work out the returns on any modified bets. And feel free to post them to our X (Twitter) handle @BettingTools.
Whatever the case, this match will have huge repercussions on the La Liga table, and we expect the two managers to line up their best players.
