El Clasico is coming up on Saturday, and this promises to be one of the most exciting encounters of recent years. 2/5 Ballon d’Or favourite Vini Jr is on red hot form after scoring a hattrick against Dortmund in the midweek Champions League game, and paired with Kylian Mbappe in attack, Real are the heavy favourites to win.
However, Barca sit 3 points clear of Madrid, and Los Blancos will need to win by at least 5 goals to overtake their rivals. But a straight win will suffice for both teams, as we are looking down the barrel of what could be one of the tightest La Liga races in recent years.
Round 11 El Clasico Game Details
October 26, Saturday 20:00 BST @ Santiago Bernabeu
The last time these two met was in an August club friendly, where Barcelona beat Real Madrid 2-1 at the MetLife Stadium in New Jersey, USA. Before that, Madrid hosted Barcelona back in April, in a very evenly matched game that Real Madrid won with an injury time effort by Jude Bellingham. This will be the first El Clasico for new Barcelona coach Hansi Flick and the 13th for Madrid manager Carlo Ancelotti (of which he has won 6 times).
Let’s look at some H2H details from the past 6 El Clasicos to get an idea of where to start with our bet builder. In the past 6 El Clasicos in La Liga, Madrid have won 4, Barca have won 2 times, and there have been no draws. Over 6 games, the teams have scored a combined 22 goals; 11 for Madrid and 11 for Barca. That makes for around 3.67 goals per game.
Defences need to be on point, especially where corners are concerned. The past 6 H2H games have brought us 8.5 corners per game on average. These games also tend to rev up players and get them in the book. On average, there have been around 4.8 yellow cards per game in the past 6, and referee Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez is well known for using his cards. He shows around 0.26 red cards per game and a very high 5.66 yellow cards per game. Those partial to betting on cards in a game could do very well in this match up.
In terms of injuries, Real are missing Thibaut Courtois, Dani Carvajal, David Alaba, and Rodrygo has also been ruled out with a thigh injury. The omission of Rodrygo will hurt Real, but Barca have far more to worry about with their own injury list.
Barcelona have done pretty well without Andres Christensen, Ferrant Torres, Marc Bernal, Ronald Araujo, and Marc-Andre ter Stegen, in their past few games. But the upcoming El Clasico will decide whether the team has really found its fighting form under Hansi Flick’s compact attack and high press.
Team Previews and Bet Builder Picks
Barcelona got off to a flying start, winning 7 games on the bounce in La Liga, before losing away to Osasuna back in August. Though Barca is the underdog in this El Clasico, they have the better scoring record in the league thus far. The team has scored 33 goals in 10 games, and conceded 10, with Robert Lewandowski scoring 12 of those goals. Raphinha and Lamine Yamal are crucial to supplying the Polish striker with chances, and he is a proven goalscorer who can perform under pressure.
Barca’s goal conversion rate is 19%, and though the defence have made a few errors, they have 3 clean sheets in the campaign which is quite good. Despite taking an early lead against Bayern in their last game, Barca looked a bit lacklustre for most of the first half, before turning on the heat and scoring 2 more goals in the dying minutes.
That game against Bayern Munich will surely give Barca that extra confidence needed against Real, but they need to take lots of precautions at back. Real’s attack is the stuff of defenders’ nightmares. Rodrygo may be out, but Barca still have to deal with Mbappe, Vini Jr, and Endrick up front, and then the likes of Jude Bellingham, Luka Modric and Federico Valverde who can drive the attack forwards. Madrid doesn’t have a Lewandowski “classic striker”, but the goalscoring duties are evenly shared between Mbappe and Vinicius, which is cause for trouble.
It does come at a cost though, as this can lead to a lower goal conversion rate and more misses. Arguably, Madrid have played harder games up to this point, facing Atletico, Sociedad, Villareal, and Betis. Whereas Barca’s most challenging games were against Sevilla, Villareal, Athletic Club, Girona, and Osasuna, the last of which beat Barca. But Barca look a lot better than last season, and they are quite strong away.
El Clasico Goal Fest Predictions
The one market that caught my eye here is the Over/Under Total Goals for the First Half. Barcelona is especially good at getting in those early first half goals, whereas Real have had a few first half openers, but the majority of their La Liga goals have come in the last 15 minutes. Whichever team opens the scoring, I expect the other to immediately turn on the pressure, which can easily lead to a quick second. It is El Clasico, which means there will almost definitely be goals scored from both teams, and I’m expecting a productive first half.
Over 1.5 Goals First Half @ 21/20
Both Teams To Score @ 2/5
Brawls, Barneys and Bookings
The odds on these two wagers are quite good, but I’m looking to get a little something extra to ramp them up big time. The total cards markets are intriguing, but the official line is set at 6.5 (Over/Under are even @ 17/20), which is a little too high for my liking. Barcelona have been fairly good at staying out of the ref’s book, but I can imagine Pau Cubarsi, Pedri, Raphinha and possibly Jules Kounde to rack up a possible 2 to 3 yellows between them. Real are the more likely to pick up yellows, with Vini Jr, Modric, Bellingham, and Valverde all quite likely to get booked.
However, instead of betting on totals, I found a much better deal – betting on Vini Jr to get a yellow card this match. At odds of 12/5 it’s a bargain. Not taking anything away from the Brazilian maverick, but he does pick up silly yellows, even when Real is winning or even after he has scored. Camavinga, Endrick, Ceballos and Bellingham come at shorter odds to get booked, which doesn’t exactly feel as likely as Vini Jr to get a booking. I can see him getting booked for dissent, diving, a reckless challenge, or simply for provoking a Barca defender into a good old-fashioned El Clasico barney.
Vini Jr to Get Booked @ 12/5
Picking the Match Winner
The only question to answer is who will win, but you’ve probably guessed it already. My bet is on Real to win this El Clasico, as they are playing at home and Ancelotti has a lot more experience in this clash than Flick. He may struggle to figure out how to beat Flick, especially in the opening half. However, I have no doubt that the world class Italian coach can overcome Flick on home ground, and produce a historic win for Real Madrid.
Real Madrid Moneyline @ 10/11
BettingTools El Clasico Bet Builder
Putting all the picks into one bet builder and the bet slip looks fantastic. For just a £10 bet it can win £135, which is ambitious, but the picks are not all that difficult. BTTS, Over 1.5 First Half goals and a Madrid moneyline are all realistically achievable. Vini Jr is doing the heavy lifting here, or that is, Jose Martinez and Vini Jr. But the odds on Vini getting booked are just too good to miss and better than the odds on any goalscorer bets, which just seem a little too short for my liking.
After all, both teams have too much quality in attack to pick out 1 goalscorer, and though it is easy to imagine someone between Lewandowski, Mbappe and Vini scoring – who would you pick? Put it this way:
Anytime Goal Scorer
23/20 (Robert Lewandowski)
5/6 (Kylian Mbappe)
6/4 (Vini Jr)
I just don’t think the odds are worth it. Instead, I’ll focus on team goals, a moneyline, and Vini to get booked. Of course, you can always add one of those bets to your slip, and feel free to check out how it affects the odds on our parlay odds calculator. Vini Jr to score, for example, will compound those odds up to 21.45/1, or that is, returns of £224.54 for every £10 wagered.
