3 rounds into the Champions League and we have already adjusted to this new league stage format. Seeing Aston Villa at the top of the table is a bit of a surprise, and as they will face Club Brugge on Wednesday night, I can see Unai Emery’s men staying in the top 4 for another round in the Champions League. But anything can happen.
Man City have closed in on the lead, but the likes of Bayern Munich, Atletico Madrid and AC Milan are lagging quite a bit behind. There are 8 rounds in this format, but these teams would do well to start catching up now. After assessing the games, and factoring in team forms in the domestic leagues, I have a fresh selection of picks for my UCL accas this week. A lot of favorites, and plenty of lengthy odds – looking like a couple of midweek winners.
UCL Round 3 Games Details
Here is a round up of all the action on Tuesday and Wednesday. I hate waiting 2 days for my accas to come through, so instead I’m going to do a Tuesday acca and one for Wednesday.
| Tuesday, Nov 5 | Wednesday, Nov 6 |
|---|---|
| 17:45 BST | 17:45 BST |
| PSV vs Girona | Club Brugge vs Aston Villa |
| Slovan vs Dinamo | Shakhtar vs Young Boys |
| 20:00 BST | 20:00 BST |
| Real Madrid vs AC Milan | Crvena Zvezda vs Barcelona |
| Sporting vs Manchester City | Inter vs Arsenal |
| Liverpool vs Leverkusen | PSG vs Atletico |
| Lille vs Juventus | Bayern vs Benfica |
| Dortmund vs Sturm | Stuttgart vs Atalanta |
| Celtic vs Leipzig | Feyenoord vs RB Salzburg |
| Bologna vs AS Monaco | Sparta Praha vs Brest |
There are plenty of high profile games to bet on here. I like Madrid x Milan, as well as Sporting x City, Liverpool x Leverkusen, and then on Wednesday, Inter x Arsenal, PSG x Atletico. But I have also seen plenty of inflated prices on favourites. For example, Bayern Munich are priced at 3/10 to beat Benfica at home, and while Kane and the boys should get the job done, the price is a little short for my liking. As is the game between Liverpool and Leverkusen. Yes the odds are good, but I think that a home win is not as simple as it seems.
Dortmund vs Sturm
Tuesday 20:00 @ Signal Iduna Park
This one feels like an easy win for Dortmund at home, as Sturm have lost all three of their UCL games so far, and have only registered 1 goal. Dortmund beat Leipzig at home this weekend, and they have not failed to bring us entertaining UCL games. They won their games 3-1 and 7-1, and lost to Madrid 5-2, so I’m expecting them to get lots of goals against the weaker Austrian team. To up the ante, I’m going to back them at a -1 handicap, so Adeyemi, Guirassy and Gittens should pile the goals on Sturm.
Dortmund -1 Handicap @ 10/21
Sporting Lisbon vs Man City
Tuesday 20:00 @ Jose Alvalade
Sporting’s manager Amorim has just been signed to the other Manchester club, so this game will get a lot of media hype. Sporting has been smashing it in Liga Portugal, winning 10 out of 10 and scoring a whopping 35 goals. Man City has shown signs of weakness in their past 2 games, losing to Tottenham in the Carabao Cup (something we predicted) and Bournemouth in a shock Premier League loss. They cruised to victories against Sparta Praha and Slovan, and both teams are level on points.
Though Sporting is playing at home, I think City should bounce back and Haaland will have to start building his UCL goal tally to compete with Harry Kane and Raphinha. City come at lengthy odds, and the shake up at Lisbon following Amorim’s imminent departure will surely play an important role in this game.
Manchester City Moneyline @ 4/5
Lille vs Juventus
Tuesday 20:00 @ Decathlon Arena
I haven’t enjoyed betting on Juve this season, as the team is simply so unpredictable. They beat Leipzig and PSV, but then got a silly red card against Stuttgart and lost 1-0. In the Serie A they have fared not too much better, beating Udinese, Lazio and Genoa recently, but drawing 0-0 against Napoli, Cagliari and Parma. The 4-4 draw at Inter was a spectacle, but Juve is very unreliable. Lille, on the other hand, beat both Madrid teams, Atleti and Real. They are the dark horses this year, and I could see them realistically going further.
Neither team here gets carried away and scores lots of goals, but I think Juventus will dig in and stop Lille. The French outfit have exceeded expectations in their first 2 games, and only have to face Sturm, Bologna, Feyenoord, and a hard game against Liverpool at Anfield. Juventus have to face AC Milan, Man City, and Benfica in the UCL. So with the harder games ahead, I think Juventus will defy the odds and steal the win here.
Juventus Moneyline @ 6/4
Real Madrid vs AC Milan
Tuesday 20:00 @ Santiago Bernabeu
Madrid stuttered against Lille, but they bounced back in fashion to beat Dortmund 5-2. I was among those expecting Real to beat Barcelona in El Clasico 2 weeks ago, and was shocked to see Ancelotti’s men getting pulled apart by Hansi Flick. Nevertheless, Madrid is 12th in the UCL, which will be seen as unacceptable in the Madrid camp.
AC Milan only have 3 points and are 25th in the league. That means they will not continue in Europe if they don’t start picking up points. A win against Brugge in the last round has given them the boost they need, but before that Milan lost to both Leverkusen and Liverpool. The team is a bit wasteful in front of goal, and while both these teams concede a lot of goals, Real is a bit more clinical in converting their chances. At home, I would back Madrid to win and do it by a good margin of goals.
Real Madrid -1 Handicap @ 23/20
Club Brugge vs Aston Villa
Wednesday 17:45 @ Jan Breydel Stadium
The Villans have won all three of their games without conceding a single goal. The victories against Young Boys and Bologna are overshadowed by Villa’s amazing 1-0 triumph over Bayern Munich. They are also 6th in the Premier League, having slipped from 4th place after losing to Tottenham 4-1 in London. But I like Villa’s determination and courage in the face of bigger teams.
Club Brugge beat Sturm away, but otherwise they lost to AC Milan and Dortmund. This is a far more evenly matched encounter, but Unai Emery is the more experienced manager and has a good track record in Europe. Villa should win this game away.
Aston Villa Moneyline @ 21/20
Crvena Zvezda vs Barcelona
Wednesday 20:00 @ Stadium Rajko Mitic
Barcelona have scored 40 goals in 12 La Liga games, and here is a statistic that will catch your eye. They have won their last 6 games by 2 goals or more. The first round loss against AS Monaco feels like a distant memory, considering Barca have since beat Bayern 4-1, thrashed Young Boys 5-0 and beat Madrid in La Liga 4-0 at the Santiago Bernabeu. Even if Flick decides to rest his key players, which I don’t think he will considering Barca is 10th in the UCL league standings, they shouldn’t have much trouble against Crvena Zvezda.
The Serbian team has lost all three of their UCL games: 2-10 to Benfica, 4-0 to Inter and 5-1 to Monaco. The last is pretty damning, and while Barca also lost to Monaco, I don’t see Crvena Zvezda even scoring against Barca. At a handicap of -1, Barca still come at worthy odds.
Barcelona -1 Handicap @ 1/2
Inter vs Arsenal
Wednesday 20:00 @ San Siro
Inter is in a good place right now, just 1 point off Serie A leaders Napoli, and 7th in the UCL league standings. They held City to a draw in game 1, and then beat Crvena Zvezda 4-0 and Young Boys 1-0. Arsenal, on the other hand, come into this game on quite a bitter note. The team lost to Newcastle in this weekend’s EPL games, and drew at home to Liverpool, a game rife with controversy.
Arsenal are 9th in the UCL, though they haven’t scored a plethora of goals. They won 2-0 against PSG and 1-0 against Shakhtar. The Gunners’s first game ended 0-0 against Atalanta. I think Inter have a slight advantage here, especially given Arsenal’s defensive injury woes. I like the Italian outfit to score at home, but I don’t think they will go unchallenged. The result could swing either way, but both teams should score here. Even though neither has conceded thus far, this game looks a lot more evenly matched than Arsenal’s or Inter’s previous encounters.
BTTS @ 17/20
PSG vs Atletico Madrid
Wednesday 20:00 @ Parc des Princes
PSG has 4 points and Atleti has 3, placing 19th and 27th in the league, respectively. PSG have faced Girona, Arsenal and PSV, and clinching 4 points from those 3 games is not bad at all. Atleti have not lived up to expectations in the UCL, only winning 1 game and losing 2. The 4-0 loss at Benfica was shocking, but then Atleti returned in the last round to lose 1-3 at home against Lille. They concede a lot of goals in the dying minutes of the game, but here is something to make this game more interesting.
PSG has only scored 2 goals in the UCL, one in the 1-1 draw against PSV, and one in the 1-0 win at home against Girona. Bradley Barcola has rocked Ligue 1 with 8 goals in 10 games, and Dembele and Kan-in Lee have also scored for PSG in the domestic league. Atleti have never been a team to score lots of goals (apart from that one season with prime Luis Suarez), and new signing Alexander Sorloth has not delivered as expected.
I don’t think this is the game for either team to break out and start scoring for fun. PSG have UCL games against Man City and Bayern to look forward to. Whereas Atleti has only Leverkusen who could pose a problem. Therefore, I expect PSG to double down and go in for the win here.
PSG Moneyline @ 4/6
BettingTools Champions League Round 3 Acca Picks and Odds
There is an equal balance of confident picks and ones that carry a little risk. But all across the games there is a lot of good betting value to be had.
Of the Tuesday picks, Juve is the game I am most concerned about. They should win, and have to, but Juve are just so inconsistent right now. As for the Wednesday games, Inter x Arsenal BTTS is a bold call. I don’t expect them to both score loads of goals, but if either breaks the deadlock, I can easily see the other team replying within 5 minutes.
PSG vs Atletico feels like the riskiest pick of the bunch. If you want to cut the risks, then you can always take out Juve from Tuesday’s picks, or skip Inter x Arsenal and PSG x Atletico on Wednesday’s picks. There are lots of ways to go about optimising your acca for the best risk to reward balance. Using our acca calculator, you can find out what works best for your bankroll and strategy.
