Cash Out Calculator

Written by: Alex Windsor
Fact checked by Brian Webb  
Updated: July 10, 2024

Our Cash Out Calculator helps you determine if the amount offered by the bookmaker to cash out your wager is worth taking. While it often seems like a solid choice to lock in a profit, there are times when it’s mathematically better to let your wager play out. Our calculator will assist you in identifying those situations.

What Is Cash Out?

Cash out is a staple among UK bookmakers, enabling punters to close out a running bet before all markets are settled. Say you’ve got a 3-leg accumulator, and two of your picks have already come through. Now, you’re just waiting on Manchester United to seal the deal against Chelsea in a Premier League nail-biter. It’s the 75th minute, United’s just scored to make it 1-0, and suddenly, your bookie offers you a chance to cash out. By taking this route, you’ll secure a profit and protect yourself from any last-minute equalisers.

Clearly, cashing out gives you a sure payout, shielding you from those nerve-wracking last-minute game changes. The trade-off? You’ll usually pocket less than what your bet might have fetched originally.

It’s up to you to decide — lock in a reduced profit now or hold out for the full amount with the risk of a last-minute twist.

Using Our Cash Out Calculator

Our Cash Out Calculator helps you decide whether to accept a bookmaker’s cash out offer or let your bet ride. Here are the parameters you have to type in:

  1. Initial stake: Enter the amount you’ve initially wagered
  2. Potential payout: Input the total payout if your bet wins
  3. Current Cash Out offer: Enter the bookmaker’s current cash out offer

How the Cash Out Calculator Works

The calculator helps you make an informed decision by comparing the Expected Value (EV) of continuing the bet to the current cash out offer. It uses this formula:

EV = (Potential Payout × Implied Probability (Current)) − (Initial Stake × (1 − Implied Probability (Current)))

Here is a breakdown of the formula:

  • Initial stake: The amount you’ve originally bet
  • Potential payout: The total amount you stand to win if the bet is successful
  • Current cash out offer: The amount the bookmaker offers to cash out
  • Implied probability (current): This is calculated based on the current offer

Making the Decision

The calculator compares the Expected Value (EV) to the current cash out offer and helps you determine whether you should continue the bet or take the money and call it a day. Here’s the breakdown:

  • If EV > cash out offer: The calculator recommends letting the bet continue, as the expected return from the bet is higher
  • If EV < cash out offer: The calculator suggests cashing out, as the offer from the bookmaker provides better value than the expected return from letting the bet ride

When It’s Mathematically Sound to Cash Out

You’ve put down £100 on three Wimbledon matches, eyeing a total win of £650. The first two are already in the bag, and now it’s down to the final showdown between Alcaraz and Sinner. You’re betting that their match will have over 39.5 games.

  • Current score: After two sets, it’s a tie (6-7, 7-6)
  • Bookmaker’s offer: £300 to cash out

After such closely fought sets, the likelihood of exceeding 39.5 games looks promising. The current odds for more than 39.5 games in the match have shifted to 1.43, which corresponds to an implied probability of 70%.

Expected Value (EV) Calculation:

EV = (Potential Payout × Current Implied Probability) − (Initial Stake × (1 − Current Implied Probability))

  • Potential payout: £650
  • Current implied probability: 70%, from the odds of 1.43

The calculator will plug in these values to figure out if using the cash out is a good idea:

EV = (£650 × 0.70) − (£100 × 0.30)

EV = £455 − £30 = £425

The EV is sitting at £425, and the cash-out offer is at just £300 — combined with the fact that the game is already showing signs of going over 39.5 games, it really makes sense to keep your bet going. Riding it out could lead to a bigger payday, especially since everything’s lining up just as predicted.

When It’s Not Mathematically Sound to Cash Out

Let’s circle back to that £100 bet you’ve placed on three Wimbledon matches, targeting a total profit of £650. The first two selections from your 3-leg acca have come through, and now it’s all coming down to the Alcaraz vs Sinner match, where you’re betting on the action to sail over 39.5 games.

  • Current score: Alcaraz leads 2-0 in sets (6-4, 6-4)
  • Bookmaker’s offer: £620 to cash out

After Alcaraz’s strong start, the odds for the match going over 39.5 games have shifted to 2.35, which translates to an implied probability of about 42.55%.

Expected Value (EV) Calculation:

EV = (Potential Payout × Current Implied Probability) − (Initial Stake × (1 − Current Implied Probability))

  • Potential payout: £650
  • Current implied probability: (42.55%, from the odds of 2.35)

The calculator will use these values to figure out if the cash out is a good option:

EV = (£650 × 0.4255) − (£100 × 0.5745)

EV = £276.58 − £57.45 = £219.13

Given that the EV (£219.13) is significantly lower than the cash out offer (£620), and considering that Alcaraz’s strong start has decreased the likelihood of the match reaching over 39.5 games, taking the money is the sensible choice. This way, you would secure a profit that would be much higher than what you’d likely get if the match didn’t hit the required game threshold.

Why Use Our Cash Out Calculator?

Our Cash Out Calculator is straightforward — it tells you whether it’s better to cash out or keep your bet running. By calculating the Expected Value (EV) and comparing it to the bookmaker’s offer, you get a clear “Yes” or “No” answer. This helps you make a quick, informed decision on whether cashing out is the most valuable option, given the current odds and game dynamics.

Alex, a ten-year iGaming industry veteran and Managing Editor at BettingTools specializes in sports betting and betting tools. He also provides insightful reviews, ensures the accuracy of all offers, and maintains content quality helping you make informed choices. Combining professional expertise with a passion for football and soccer, Alex ensures we offer you a reliable resource, focusing on betting tools to assist with odds, accas, and other betting strategies.