It’s time to outsmart the bookies with our positive EV calculator. Type in your stake, odds, and win probability, and in real-time, determine if the bet is worth making or not. Use this tool to take advantage of soft bookie lines and welcome bonus offers now!
Using Our Positive EV Calculator
To use our positive EV calculator, also known as an Expected Value Calculator, simply:
- Enter your stake
- Type in the odds
- Enter the win probability of your bet
The stake is the amount you’re betting. So if you’re wagering £100 on Arsenal, then your stake is £100. The odds are what the bookie will pay if your wager wins. Finally, the win probability is the likelihood of your bet winning. For example, if you believe Man United are way too strong for Chelsea and think they win 9/10 times, then the win probability is 90%.
If the expected value is negative, then over the long term, you’ll lose every time you place that wager. However, if it’s positive, you can expect to profit. The exact figure reveals the amount on average you’ll win or lose per bet.
What Is Expected Value?
Expected value is the amount you can expect to profit or lose on each sports bet over the long term with the same odds and stake. A positive EV indicates a profit, while a negative EV reveals a loss. Ideally, you should only make positive EV wagers and look for bets with the highest EV possible.
How Do You Calculate Expected Value?
To calculate expected value, you use this simple formula: (Profit per wager) x (Probability of winning) x – (Loss per wager) x (Probability of losing).
Here is how it looks in practice. Let’s say you bet £100 on Manchester City (1.25) to beat Fulham (13.0), and a draw pays 7.0. Follow these steps to calculate EV:
- Multiply your stake by Manchester’s odds – £100 x 1.25 = £125
- Calculate the implied probability for a Manchester City win – 1/1.25 = 0.80
- Calculate implied probability for a Manchester City loss or draw – 1/ 13 + 1/7 = 0.22
- Plug the numbers into the formula – (25) x (0.80) – (100) x (0.22) = -2
This means that over the long term, you can expect to lose £2 on every £100 bet you make on Man City beating Fulham at 1.25 odds.
Tips To Increase Profits With Expected Value Betting
Now you know how expected value works in sports betting and how to use our EV calculator. If you are keen to use this EV betting knowledge going forward as part of your sports betting strategy, here are some things to know to maximise your potential earnings.
Do some odds shopping
Shopping around for the best odds involves browsing several bookies to ensure you are getting the best odds for an event. Constantly monitoring the changes in the odds before you bet gives you the best chances of finding EV opportunities.
Bet on multiple markets
You should diversify your betting markets by placing bets in a combination of sports and leagues. This helps mitigate risk and also identify more niche markets that some bookmakers will pay less attention to. This means they will also typically offer more profitable EV bets.
Manage your bankroll
Keeping track of your bankroll and being wise with the amount of money you wish to bet at any time is vital to smart EV betting. There is no sense in absolutely blowing your whole budget on just one event. We would recommend starting small with incremental increases the more you get used to things.
Use other calculators
Using an EV calculator is a smart move. But combining this with some of our other calculators such as the Kelly calculator or our odds calculator can help you perfect and refine your expected value betting process even further.
Use in conjunction with other betting methods
EV betting is a great way to make some long term profits, but you should also consider using other betting methods to make sure you are making some money in the short term, as well. For example, arbitrage betting can earn you a nice profit every month.
Why Does Expected Value Matter?
Expected value reveals if your bet is profitable over the long term. You can use this tool to take advantage of incorrect lines set by bookies. In most cases, the bookmaker’s odds will have a negative expected value due to the baked-in juice or commission that bookies charge. In the above example of Manchester City against Fulham, it’s 2%.
That’s why the expected value betting strategy requires you to handicap sporting events yourself and then place a bet when you find a profitable difference between the sportsbook’s calculated implied probability and your own. For example, if you think Manchester actually has a 95% chance of winning and is still paying 1.25, you should take that bet because now the expected value has flipped from -2 to 1.75.
Our free Positive EV calculator at BettingTools can help you get the expected value quickly and accurately. You can view our full suite of free betting calculators to discover other handy tools to give you the edge.
