Backing a draw can be any strategy where you bet for the final outcome of a game to end in a tie. Simple, but tricky.
When I started backing draws, I did so with little planning, being blindly drawn to the favourable odds draw outcomes always offer. I didn’t make any real progress, losing more often than winning. This compelled me to start researching and testing betting strategies that could help me generate a steadier profit.
Betting on the draw is one of the most profitable, yet underused strategies in all of football betting. When you consider that approximately 25% of football matches end in a stalemate, it is curious as to why it is an option that is ignored by most bettors. The odds on a draw are typically in your favour and anything that gives you an edge on the bookie is always worthwhile.
In this guide, we are going to focus on draw betting, looking at how you can use this market to your advantage and make some long term profits. Whether you are an experienced bettor or just getting started, you can use these tips moving forward to help you achieve success in your draw betting strategy.
Some proved quite valuable in the long run. I ran a few of them by my BettingTools colleagues to get a second opinion of their efficacy, benefits, and potential pitfalls. I will present you with a few useful strategies and tips for backing the draw worth your consideration.
Backing the Draw Explained
A draw is possible only in some sports. To find odds for a tie, you must look for sports that have a 3-way outcome, such as football or hockey. In these sports, a tie is one of the three possible moneyline markets, alongside the usual win/lose. In other words, one of three outcomes is possible: draw, the home team to win, or the away team to win.
If there are overtime rules, such as in ice hockey, the bet is settled based on the outcome after added time. That is, the game may end in a tie in regular time, but you’ll have to wait out the result in overtime to see if the match finally ends in a tie. The overtime rules will likely differ for regular-season games and cup games, play-offs, or tournament qualifiers.
Backing the Draw: Betting Tips and Strategies
I picked up a few tips and tactics for draw betting over the years. It took enduring quite a few losses before I could see what works and what doesn’t. Below, I share a few useful tactics and tips that have worked for me. However, I do not consider them surefire strategies. Each one requires trial and testing, research, and some skill for forecasting outcomes on your part to return a profit in the long run.
Splitting the Odds
In 1X2 sports, you can sense the likelihood of a draw by looking at the odds for each of the 3 outcomes.
Let’s explain through an example of a game of football offering 25/20 (2.25) for Team A (home team) to win; 39/20 (2.95) for a draw, and 21/10 (3.1) for Team B to win. In this case, the odds are close, making a draw a much likelier outcome compared to a game with imbalanced odds, such as if Team A has 10/20 (1.5) odds to win – a strong favourite – 4/1 (5.00) for a draw, and 6/1 (7.00) for Team B to win.
Double Chance Bet
With three-way moneyline sports, bookmakers usually allow double chance bets, where you have 2/3 chances of winning, albeit at lower odds. With this strategy, you can place the following bets where a draw is a payable outcome:
- 1X – Pays if the home team wins or the game ends in a draw.
- X2 – Pays if the result is a draw or if the away team wins.
The third option is to bet double chance on either team to win, meaning you lose if the game is a draw.
Recent Form vs Favourites
One way online bookmakers determine (draw) odds is based on how the public bets (public favourites) and the teams’ recent form. The thing with public favourites is that public opinion and betting trends can and will affect the value of (draw) odds and may force the bookmaker to offer reduced or higher odds, depending on which way the money is going. This is why the recent form may offer more valuable insight.
You can check sport-specific statistics to see the average number of draw games per season in a certain league/tournament over the last few seasons. To narrow things down, look deeper into the individual form of the teams that are facing off before the game starts. You can work out If a draw is more or less probable based on whether either (or both teams) has a run of draw games and its current form.
Note: Beware of gambler’s fallacy i.e. betting on a certain outcome just because opposite outcomes have recently occurred.
Backing Draws in a System Bet
System bets are combined bets – like accumulators (acca bets) – where you don’t have to win all selections to net a profit. One, two, three, or more legs may lose, and you can still get a payout higher than your stake.
You can combine draw bets with other markets or simply create an all-draw system bet, such as 2 out of 4, 2 out of 5, 3 out of 6, 3 out of 5, or another combination. If, for instance, you have a 2 out of 5 system with 5 bets backing the draw, you win if 2 or more selections end in a tie.
Find the Right Bookmaker
There are plenty of excellent online betting sites in the UK. Some of the best that offer plenty of football markets with odds and live betting options can be found below
How to win Betting on Draws
You may look at some stats, analysis tables and lists of odds and be thinking it looks very difficult to predict any match to be a draw. The good news is that bookmakers tend to feel the same way, which means the market is ripe for making some profits as there is excellent value to be found.
Finding Value with Single Draw Bets
A lot of what goes into betting is about following your gut instinct. It has served many people well in betting and will continue to do so. This means despite all the evidence that may point to a certain team winning because of form or injuries or another factor, you may opt to back the team they are facing due to your gut. This is where making draw predictions can offer excellent insights for you and all other bettors.
For example, Manchester City could be in the middle of one of their long winning runs, which have become frequent in recent years, particularly in the second half of the season. They could be coming up against Liverpool, who have no wins in a few games, have some injuries and despite everything seeming to point towards a City win, Liverpool fans will go with their gut and still back their own team. The same would apply to City fans if the roles were reversed.
That sort of optimism and loyalty means the bookie will be placing a lot of liability on City or Liverpool getting the win. If a match is not considered likely to end in a draw, the bookie will boost the odds for other outcomes. This is because there aren’t many bettors backing the draw so the operator will increase the odds, maybe from 2/1 to 4/1 for example, which makes predicting the correct draws even more valuable. This is how you find value. Look for bookies who have placed a lot of emphasis on one side winning, leaving the draw as the clear value bet.
Take a Mathematical Approach
There are numerous ways to adopt a mathematical approach when betting on draws, but a lot of them are complicated. We suggest the best way to use mathematics to work out the possibilities of a draw is to focus on specific leagues. There is no doubt that certain leagues will see more draws than others, typically because the teams are lower scoring. It is a case of taking a look at the major leagues and identifying some opportunities. If you notice a pattern where certain teams are struggling to score regularly, this makes draws more likely.
We wouldn’t recommend doing this for the Premier League, for example, as it is a high scoring league. Look for leagues where it might be slightly more tactical and cautious, Italy’s Serie A for example, and try and find two evenly matched teams. Juventus so far this season have had an incredible amount of draws so there are trends out there, it is just about finding them.
Recognise Draws Don’t Always Happen
There is no sure thing in betting, you understand that every time you place a bet there is an element of risk involved. When you bet on the draw, you are betting on one of three possible outcomes, so naturally there is more risk than other football bets. For example, betting on over 2.5 goals is a safer bet if you want to reduce risk.
There is no perfect draw prediction, predicting the full time result of any football game is a fine art. But there is certainly a lot of value to be found in draws betting if you know where to look.
When to Back the Draw
You can’t predict outcomes with absolute certainty, but you can take advantage of opportune situations with an increased probability of a tie.
Consider pre-game and live odds. Backing the draw is also possible in-game. The odds will shift in real time, but you’d have better insight into the probability of a draw by following live stats, performance, result, game period, and other factors that indicate the likeliest outcome.
As I mentioned above, one potentially favourable situation to back a draw is when the 1X2 odds are close (see image above), and there is no strong favourite.
In football, betting on the best 4 or 6 teams in the league when they play each other is a smart tactic to back a draw, but it has its flaws. For instance, the Manchester derby (Man. City vs Man. United) is not what it was, as City has dominated Premier League football for years, and Man. United never really stabilised after Sir Alex Ferguson’s departure, rendering City the favourites in most face-offs. However, it’s a different situation when, for instance, Man. City plays Liverpool – two strong teams with consistent form and Championship ambitions. A draw outcome in the latter case is more likely.
In late-season games teams with no ambitions to rank higher and at no risk of being relegated usually have little motive to chase a win. Such games – be it in the Premier League, Serie A, or La Liga – are, for lack of a better word, boring, but draw outcomes are highly likely. But so is a narrow margin of victory. If a draw result makes no difference for either team, neither does a loss (or a win), and teams trailing a goal or two may not have sufficient motive to chase a draw or, less so, victory.
Top Sports For Backing the Draw
A tie outcome is possible in several popular sports. I already mentioned football – by far the most popular sport with 3-way lines. However, you should take into consideration the rules of different tournaments where regular-time draw outcomes are decided in extra time. This can happen in tournaments like the Champions League or the World Cup, where the regular-time result can be tied, and the winner is determined based on overtime rules.
In ice hockey, a game can be tied in regulation time, deciding the winner in overtime. This applies to both regular-season games and cup games, like the NHL’s Stanley Cup. In ice hockey leagues, winners are usually decided by tiebreaker rules in overtime if the result is tied after 3 periods.
In golf, golfers can have the same score after the finishing hole. The tie is resolved by sudden-death playoffs with extra holes until there is a winner.
Benefits and Disadvantages of Backing the Draw
Chasing draws is tempting but also risky. Below are a few points illustrating, in my experience, the main benefits and risks of backing draws.
Pros
- Draw outcomes always have longer odds, generating higher payouts.
- You can reduce risk with strategies like double-chance bets.
- Combining draws in a system bet can work in your favour.
- No complex strategies are necessary to predict high-probability draws.
Cons
- It is a volatile and risky betting market.
- Only some sports support 3-way bets.
What is a Draw No Bet?
A betting system that we must mention is the draw no bet market. Unlike a typical single bet where you are predicting one of three outcomes, either a home win, away win or draw, this type of bet completely eliminates the draw. This means you can only bet on the winner. If the game does end up finishing all square, this is considered a no bet and you receive your stake back.
This gives players and added layer of safety when betting, and gives you another option when you are betting on a game between two evenly matched teams.
Top Betting Sites for Backing the Draw
Every bookmaker covering sports like ice hockey, football, and golf accepts 3-way betting. A few leading bookies offer consistently competitive and fair draw odds, often accompanied by live updates and in-play betting.
Betway is well worth considering. Betway holds a licence from the UK Gambling Commission. You can also look into BetMGM (the UK site) – a US entertainment conglomerate with global business interests. It is licensed in the UK by the UKGC and offers 3-way moneyline odds for all major competitions.
So there you have it, my guide to backing the draw. Does it always work? Not always, but it’s a great strategy to use.
