We all have that one annoying mate in our group chat who claims to have a “banker” every Saturday right before kick-off. Although the term “Sure Bets” might be synonymous with people of that sort, it actually has absolutely nothing to do with your mate and his “sure” 11/2 bet on his favourite side from the Vanarama North.
Sure Betting, also known as Arbitrage betting or Arbing, is a sports betting strategy based on exploiting potential inconsistencies in the prices for a particular match at different bookmakers.
The goal of the strategy is to detect opportunities where placing a bet on each outcome at different bookmakers can lead you to guaranteed profit regardless of the result after the final whistle.
The strategy can be a bit of a time-sink, requiring sharp instincts, a good eye for opportunities, and a knack for betting the correct amounts. However, you have nothing to worry about since we are chuffed to teach you the ropes and suggest the top tools to up your Arbitrage betting game.
How Sure Bets Work
Sure Bets, or Arbitrage betting, as many call it, is a betting strategy in which bettors secure a guaranteed profit by placing multiple wagers on a single match at different bookmakers. The success of this strategy hinges on taking advantage of price differences between two or more bookies. If executed perfectly, sure betting will allow you to laugh your way to the bank, well, at least to your piggy bank, or your PayPal account if you’re betting online – regardless of how the match pans out.
The first prerequisite for Sure Betting is to spot a sports event that offers the opportunity. The best way to do this is by looking for sports commonly associated with 2-way betting markets. Although football and basketball matches can surely bring plenty of opportunities for Sure Bets, tennis is, by far, the easiest option for novices looking to dip their toes into the profitable yet stormy Arbitrage waters. Let’s see how it works with an example.
Imagine a Wimbledon final where the odds for Alexander Zverev are 11/10 at Bookmaker 1, while the odds for Carlos Alcaraz are 6/5 at Bookmaker 2.
- Betting £100 on Zverev at Bookmaker 1 will bring you a return of £210
- Betting £100 on Alcaraz at Bookmaker 2 will bring you a return of £220
- If Zverev wins, you will secure a profit of £110.
- If Alcaraz wins, you will secure a profit of £120.
This is the simplest form of Arbitrage betting, and as you can see from the example above, using this method in this particular situation will bring you profits no matter the outcome. However, finding such an opportunity for Arbitrage betting is practically impossible.
How To Manually Detect a Sure Bet
The best way to detect an opportunity for Sure Betting is by using software and an Arbitrage calculator. However, to fully grasp how Sure Betting truly works, you should learn how to manually detect it and how to calculate how much you need to stake on each bet. Let’s do it with an example of a football match using 1×2 markets.
Let’s say we have the following odds:
- 1 (Home team): 2.50 (6/4)
- X (Draw): 3.00 (2/1)
- 2 (Away team): 4.00 (3/1)
To see if this is a Sure Bet and if there is an opportunity for Arbitrage betting, first, you must use the Sure Bet formula.
(1 divided by the Home Team odds) + (1 divided by the Draw odds) + (1 divided by the Away Team odds) < 1
Then, using the formula, calculate the implied probabilities of each outcome.
- 1 / 2.50 = 0.40
- 1 / 3.00 = 0.33
- 1 / 4.00 = 0.25
Once you get the implied probabilities, you sum them and get the total amount.
- 40 + 0.33 + 0.25 = 0.9833
If the total amount is less than 1, you are in luck. Getting a value lower than 1 means there is a guaranteed Arbitrage opportunity.
Now that we are sure there is an Arbitrage opportunity, it is time to find the required stakes on each bet and calculate the potential profit for every possible outcome.
Let’s say you have a bankroll of £100.
Here is how much you need to place on each bet:
- Bet 1 (Home team) = 100 / (0.9833 x 2.50) = £40.68
- Bet 2 (Draw) = 100 / (0.9833 x 3.00) = £33.90
- Bet 3 (Away team) = 100 / (0.9833 x 4.00) = £25.43
- Bet 1 (Home team) = £40.68 at 2.50 = £101.70
- Bet 2 (Draw) = £33.90 at 3.00 = £101.70
- Bet 3 (Away team) = £25.43 at 4.00 = £101.72
As demonstrated in the example, regardless of the outcome, you will secure a profit of £1.70.
Types of Markets to find Surebets
There are numerous markets available when it comes to placing bets. Although the most common option in regards to betting is to combine Team A and Team B markets, or over/under, there are other markets you can find appealing sure bet opportunities, often better than the previous ones.
You can combine markets to cover every possible outcome of the event with only two bets. You can also look for surebets with European and Asian handicaps, combining them with the previous markets.
It is crucial to have a good understanding of these markets, because a lot of them mean the same thing. However, not all bookmakers have the same odds, so it is important to do some research and compare bookies prices so you can make the most out of your sure bet.
Sure Bets Software
While detecting Sure Bets requires knowledge of how to use the formula and lots of time on your hands or an Arbitrage Software tool, using a Sure Bets calculator is very straightforward. One of the best on the market it surebets.com. You can learn more about this awesome tool in our SureBets review, where we break down exactly what the software offers and why would should use it as part of your betting strategy.
Our Sure Bets calculator is free to use, and all you have to do is enter the odds of your bets and the amount you are willing to spend. The calculator will then indicate how much to stake on each bet to ensure a profit. It will also display your total return and overall profit.
Is the Use of Sure Bets Legal?
Although Arbitrage betting is an entirely legal sports betting strategy, bookmakers are not particularly fond of it. Thus, they often employ various methods to deter those who are successful in it.
While legality will not be a problem, you can fully expect to deal with various restrictions if you become successful with sure bets. One of the most common methods bookmakers use to stop you from Arbitrage betting is imposing limits on your stakes.
Such limits can put you in an awkward position and leave you unable to place the minimum stake required to secure profit.
Pre-Match Sure Bets Pros & Cons
There are several things to consider if you want you want your prematch arbs to succeed. As with a lot of gambling strategies, there are also pros and cons associated with sure betting, and we have listed some below.
Prematch Sure Betting Pros
- Wide range of surebets: A large amount of events that will start in the near future means you can calculate several surebets.
- Static odds: Odds don’t change that frequently pre-match, meaning you have a lot of time to place all of the bets you need.
- Great selection of events: With so many events and matches to bet on, you will always find unique surebet opportunities.
- Perfect for new players: Prematch sure bets are ideal for new bettors as the odds change slowly meaning you can take your time and think things through clearly.
Prematch Sure Betting Cons
- Less profitable: Some of these surebets can be less profitable as bookmakers can take their time to set prematch odds. Consequently it is difficult to find an arb with yield greater than 10%.
- Very competitive: A lot of bettors look at prematch odds and markets because it is so easy.
Do Sure Bets Guarantee Profits?
Many refer to Arbitrage betting as the Holy Grail of betting strategies, and it’s our duty to let you know that they couldn’t be more off the mark. While it can generate steady profits when executed flawlessly, Sure Betting is still a strategy loaded with risks.
From changing prices to canceling bets, limiting stakes, and even throwing in fake arbitrage opportunities, bookies have invented bags full of tricks to expose your Sure Bets strategy, and they won’t think twice about opening them. The reality is that you’ll have more luck finding a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow than a Sure Bet opportunity, but there are still cases where a Sure Bet opportunity might be possible.
