Underdog betting is the process of betting on the team/player that isn’t expected to win. You are betting against the odds and taking the bet that has a lower chance of success. For example, in an EPL match between Man City and Ipswich, the underdog bet would be on Ipswich to win as the bookies will pick City as the clear favourite.
Underdog betting systems allow for big profits due to the low odds of your picks winning. As you will see below, with careful analysis, planning, and risk management, this can be a viable strategy.
What is Underdog Betting?
Cambridge Dictionary defines an underdog as:
“in a competition, the person or team considered to be the weakest and the least likely to win”
So, underdog betting is betting on the weaker team/player. For sports betting, the key point is that we are betting on who the bookmakers deem to be the weakest participants.
Underdog betting aims to cash in from the big payouts you can get from the odds underdog teams usually have.
Pros and Cons of Underdog Betting
The pros and cons of underdog betting are fairly obvious but it’s important to be clear on your expectations and what you can gain from this betting system.
Pros
- High rewards: The payouts on underdog bets are usually much higher than the favourite and thus the rewards can be sizable.
- Risk management: With careful risk management techniques and proper analysis of underdog bets you can be successful.
Cons
- High risk: Ultimately, no matter how much planning and research you do, the underdog is an underdog for a reason, and in most instances, they aren’t going to win.
- Bookies management: Online bookmakers are smart. They don’t leave anything to chance and you can guarantee that they have put in more research than you ever could to formulate their odds. Upsets can happen, but bookies make it hard to make underdog bets successful.
Tips for Effective Underdog Betting
There are things you can do to help with your underdog betting strategy including research, hedge bets, and bankroll management.
Consider Combining Multiple Underdog Bets
A simple underdog betting system is to place multiple underdog bets to cover your stakes. For example:
- Southampton FC vs Liverpool: Southampton to win at 4.25
- Newcastle vs Everton: Everton to win at 4.00
- Man United vs Wolves: Wolves to win at 4.15
- Chelsea vs Forest: Forest to win at 4.25
Let’s say you put a £2.50 bet on each underdog selection, the payouts would be as follows:
| Winner | Payout |
| Southampton | £10.63 |
| Everton | £10.00 |
| Wolves | £10.38 |
| Forest | £10.63 |
Here we are spending £10, and it only takes 1 team to win and we’ve covered our stakes. You are spreading the risk with several smaller-value bets as opposed to one bigger bet where it’s all-or-nothing.
Conduct In-Depth Research Relating to the Sport/League/Matchup
Research is the key to underdog betting and you have to find value where you think the bookies have not. This includes looking at data such as:
- Injuries
- Recent performance
- Importance of the game
- Game scheduling
- Previous match history
For example, Liverpool might be the favourite, but what if they have a Champions League game a few days before playing Southampton? Or what if two of their main players are listed as questionable for the game? Small details like this can make underdog bets more viable.
Consider Hedging to Minimise Risk
A hedge bet is where you place a counter bet as a safeguard in the event your original bet loses. For example, let’s say that you bet £5 on Southampton to win with odds of 2.25 and a potential £11.25 return.
Your hedge bet would be one that has a much better chance of winning and results in a £5 or more profit to cover your original underdog bet stake. Ideally, the stake of the hedge bet must also be less than the profit you stand to make from the underdog bet.
The idea is that Southampton are probably going to lose. However, your hedge bet has a much higher chance of payout out, so either way, you cover your losses.
Use a Bankroll Management Strategy to Protect Your Cash
You shouldn’t use all your bankroll to bet on underdogs. This is the quickest way to empty your balance. Instead, I advise using a bankroll management strategy.
For example, I never bet the entirety of my bankroll in one go. I always keep a minimum of 25% in my account so I always have something to play with.
I would then take that one step further for underdog betting and allocate only 15-20% of the 75% of my bankroll for underdog bets. The other 80-85% would be used for betting on the favourites to offset the riskier underdog betting.
Identifying the Underdog in Sports Betting
If you are new to online bookies you need to know how to tell who the underdog is. I’ve explained this below for the decimal, fractional, and American odds systems, although you will most likely use decimal.
Decimal Odds
Decimal odds are commonly used at UK bookies and the simple premise is that the number represents how much you win based on a £1 bet. So, if you place a £1 bet on a selection with 1.25 odds, you would get back £1.25 (£1 stake + £0.25 profit).
The underdog = the selection with the higher number.
For example:
- Liverpool FC: 1.10
- Southampton FC: 2.25
Here Southampton is the underdog. If you place a £10 bet on Liverpool, you’d get back £11, whereas Southampton is not expected to win, and thus if you placed a £10 bet you’d get £22.50 back.
Fractional Odds
Fractional odds are a little more tricky to see the underdog and I recommend using decimal where possible. In fractional odds, the first number (numerator) is how much you win, and the second number (denominator), is how much you have to spend to win that amount.
For example, 6/1 odds means that for every £1 you wager, you win £6. Typically, the favourite in a selection is the pick where the two numbers are closer together.
For example:
- Liverpool FC: 7/6
- Southampton FC: 7/2
We can use the formula P = (S(N/D))+S where P is the profit, S is the stake, N is the numerator, and D is the denominator to work out the profit and see who the underdog is. We can do this with a £10 bet on the above:
- Liverpool FC: P = (£10(7/6)) + £10 = £21.66
- Southampton FC: P = (£10(7/2)) + £10 = £45.00
Southampton is the underdog because they generate the largest payout from a £10 bet.
American Odds
You won’t come across American odds often, but if possible they are useful for seeing who is the underdog. Essentially, the selection with the + next to the odds is the underdog while the selection with the – is the favourite.
- Liverpool FC: -110
- Southampton FC: +275
In this scenario, Southampton is the underdog because their odds are +275. Conversely, the number after the + sign relates to how much you win based on a £100 bet. In contrast, the number after the – sign relates to how much you need to bet to win £100.
Defy the Odds and Back the Underdog for Big Payouts
Everyone loves betting on the underdog! We love to cheer on the smaller team as they battle a giant and it’s epic when the unthinkable happens. Putting the excitement aside, underdog betting can be a viable betting strategy.
The key is to research your underdog bets carefully. Don’t simply flick onto the EPL match listings and pick one of the bottom-ranking teams to win. Look at things like current form, previous matchups, injuries, and game scheduling.
Also, consider offsetting your underdog bets with hedge bets with better odds. By doing this, you can potentially benefit from the larger payouts underdog bets provide.
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