Sometimes when you are looking for who to bet on in a football match you quickly come to an opinion without carefully thinking about whether the odds available offer value.
For example, many might decide to bet on Man Utd to beat Palace at odds of 1.3 (1/3) but not know what percentage chance the odds equate to. If you then ask them how many times they think Man Utd will win this match out of ten they might say 7 and not realise that the 1.3 is then not a value selection to them. This is because 1.3 equates to a percentage chance of 76.9% and if Man Utd were to win 7 times out of 10 you would lose money backing this selection.
Fully understanding where the value is in betting can really help with your betting performance. Recognising where the value is plays a big role in any betting strategy, in addition to keeping track of your bets and knowing the most profitable bet types. Identifying where there might be higher odds on a value opportunity can ultimately lead to you winning more money.
Value Betting
Many punters are always on the lookout for value bets. Essentially, value betting is the ability to spot an edge you might have over the bookie or another user on a betting exchange. Many people have different strategies to try and consistently make a profit from betting, whether it be arbitrage betting or matched betting, but value betting is the most common.
We are always looking for value, whether it is in business, everyday life or betting. If your selection’s probability of occurring is less than it should be, that is a typical value bet.
To be successful at value betting, you must recognise the difference between your prediction happening and how it compares to the odds available. It is all about searching for an attractive opportunity and betting on it. It is not always about just betting on the favourites, yes, they are more likely to win than not, but it doesn’t mean they offer value.
There are tools out there to help with this. There is software out there that can help, including the Excel spreadsheet we have created. If you want to know more about the different options available, have a read of my separate guide to the best value betting software on the market where I run through the top 5 software you can use.
How to Find Value Bets
As we have mentioned above, there is software available now that can help you find the most valuable bet type and how it can lead to you boosting your bankroll. Without using software, the best way to locate value in betting is comparing bookmaker odds. Most of the time, the odds are similar across the major operators but there are times there may be a boost available or a slight difference and that is when you must take advantage.
It is rare, but sometimes a bookmaker might make a mistake, as well. They may offer incorrect odds that look miles away from what they should be, but that gives you a chance to exploit it and place a bet quickly at those odds. It is about sensing opportunity and jumping in when they presents themselves.
Odds Spreadsheet
I have created a spreadsheet that solves the problem working out the implied probability of your bet winning. It lets you input your percentage estimations and then the odds available to tell you which outcome offers the most value based on your estimates. The spreadsheet uses the Kelly criterion to determine which bet offers the most value and it also shows what your profit loss returns would be had you used the Kelly stakes.
If your Kelly stakes profit/loss is better than that of the level stake profit/loss this means your % estimations are very accurate and you may want to consider using the Kelly stakes themselves. It also keeps track of your profit loss and shows you month-by-month totals and betting history. It’s amazing how often you think you know which team you want to bet on but when you actually put the % estimates into the spreadsheet that the value really lies elsewhere, showing where the expected value is.
Give it a try for yourself and download the Value Finder Spreadsheet for free below, which is easy to use as a standard Excel file. It is just one of the many free betting tools we have available to download and use on the site that can help in your sports betting experiences.
If you need any help or have any questions about the spreadsheet you can find or post a message on the forum.
Click here to download the Value Finder Spreadsheet
