Value Finder Spreadsheet

Sometimes when you are looking for who to bet on in a football match you quickly come to an opinion without carefully thinking about whether the odds available offer value.

For example, many might decide to bet on Man Utd to beat Palace at odds of 1.3 (1/3) but not know what percentage chance the odds equate to. If you then ask them how many times they think Man Utd will win this match out of ten they might say 7 and not realise that the 1.3 is then not a value selection to them. This is because 1.3 equates to a percentage chance of 76.9% and if Man Utd were to win 7 times out of 10 you would lose money backing this selection.

I therefore came up with a spreadsheet that solves this problem. It lets you input your percentage estimations and then the odds available to tell you which outcome offers the most value based on your estimates. The spreadsheet uses the Kelly criterion to determine which bet offers the most value and it also shows what your profit loss returns would be had you used the Kelly stakes.

If your Kelly stakes profit/loss is better than that of the level stake profit/loss this means your % estimations are very accurate and you may want to consider using the Kelly stakes themselves. It also keeps track of your profit loss and shows you month-by-month totals. It’s amazing how often you think you know which team you want to bet on but when you actually put the % estimates into the spreadsheet that the value really lies elsewhere.

Give it a try for yourself and download the Value Finder Spreadsheet for free below. It is just one of the many free tools we have available to download and use on the site.

If you need any help or have any questions about the spreadsheet you can find or post a message on the forum.

Click here to download the Value Finder Spreadsheet