Futures is a type of bet in which you wager on the outcome of a long-term sporting event, such as a tournament (NBA Playoffs) or a season (NFL Regular Season).
In addition to league or tournament winners, you can place bets on player futures or awards reflecting a player’s performance over an entire season.
How Futures Betting Works in Practice
In practice, futures betting involves placing a bet on a specific outcome at the end of an event. Many experienced sports bettors who participate in futures betting place these bets at the start of the season or event, but you can also place bets during the event.
Before placing a futures bet, you must understand how to read the odds you see on the sportsbook. These odds appear as a list containing all the teams participating in the event along with their payouts. The list is sorted in descending order, with the favorites at the top and the underdogs at the bottom.
For example, a sportsbook might list its NBA Playoffs futures starting with a +600 futures odd for the Celtics and ending with a +30,000 futures odd for the Miami Heat. This implies that a $100 bet on the Celtics will earn you a $700 payout, and a $100 bet on the Miami Heat will earn you $30,100.
So, why shouldn’t you consider the Miami Heat?
This is where another statistic, the implied probability, comes into place. The implied probability refers to the likelihood or chances of an event. You can calculate the implied probability as:
- Implied Probability for Positive Odds: 100 / (Positive Odds + 100) * 100
- Implied Probability for Negative Odds: Negative Odds / (Negative Odds +100) * 100
When the odds from the earlier example are slotted into the formula, the Celtics have a 14.29% chance of winning the Playoffs, while the Miami Heat have a 0.33% chance.
Are there Negative Odds in Futures Bets?
Negative odds appear in the futures betting market, but they are more common during the season. Teams with negative odds are solid favorites to win and have a much higher implied probability of winning.
What Influences Futures Betting Odds?
Since futures bets focus on the long-term outcome of a tournament or season, the odds change frequently. Squad depth is the most crucial factor affecting these bets since it encompasses injuries, player transfers, and player performance, which all influence the team’s performance during the season.
Types of Futures Bets
You can participate in two types of futures betting on any sportsbook, namely team and player futures.
The team futures consist of bets like:
- Super Bowl Winner
- Super Bowl Winning Division
- NBA Team to Make the Playoffs
- MLB World Series Winner
On the other hand, player futures include bets like:
- NBA League MVP
- NBA League Rookie of the Year
- NFL Most Regular Season Rushing Yards
- NFL Comeback Player of the Year
Futures Betting Tips & Strategies
There are many tips and strategies you can apply to futures betting, and some of my favorites include:
- Hedge Your Bets: Although this is only useful if your initial pick makes it to the final event, hedging is a great way to secure a win. Typically, the odds on the final event will be similar for each team, and betting on the opposing team is all you need to cover your initial bet and make a tidy profit.
- Diversify: Futures bets can be a great way to earn decent payouts, but remember they’re long-term bets. So, diversifying your funds to include futures bets, moneylines, and live bets is crucial for consistent payouts.
- Learn to predict big player moves: In sports like Basketball, big-name moves can significantly impact a team’s performance. Therefore, when the rumors start flying, you must learn to predict where a player might go so you can place your bets early for better payouts.
- Compare odds from multiple sportsbooks: Different sportsbooks have different analyses for futures bets, so it’s common for their odds to differ. To get the best payout from your bet, you should shop for future bets offering the most lucrative odds for your pick.
- Find undervalued teams: Identifying and placing bets on undervalued teams early is an excellent way to boost your profits. With the right pick, you can make up to three times what you would have gotten if you bet on the sportsbook’s favorites.
- Check the season schedule: An easier schedule significantly impacts a team’s performance during a season. This is a handy tip when deciding on a pick between two teams with similar odds.
Futures Betting Alternatives
If you’re interested in futures betting but still need some training to improve in areas such as research and prediction, prop betting is another option I recommend. Since prop bets allow you to place bets on various events rather than the outright winner of a game, it’s the closest you’ll get to futures bets.
Unlike futures bets, which require long-term investments, prop bets allow you to make similar wagers without tying up your funds.
