Spread betting gives “regular” betting a unique twist – it adds another winning condition to the wager called the point spread, softening the gap between favorites and underdogs.
In this type of sports gambling, match winners can lose and vice versa – the “spread” in this case is the winning or losing margin that needs to be “covered” for the bet to win, as opposed to moneyline betting.
Some beginners may be confused by how spread betting works, so I’m here to help you learn the ropes and terms.
How Does Spread Betting Work?
There are three key ingredients in spread betting – the favorites/underdogs, the point spread, and the “juice”.
Favorites, Underdogs & Point Spread
Oddsmakers are expert sports analysts who make their living by predicting who’s likely to win any given match-up. According to them, the likely winners are “favorites”, and the likely losers are the “underdogs”.
The point spread indicates the minimum point advantage the favorites must achieve (and win) to cover the spread, typically expressed by a negative number. For example, if you bet on a favorite with a point spread of -2.5, the team must win by more than 3 points.
The underdogs always have positive point spreads. You can win a spread bet on the losing team if they lose by fewer points than the spread indicates. For instance, when an underdog has a +2.5 spread, they can lose by 1 or 2 points for your wager to win, but the bet will be lost if the team loses by 3 or more points.
The Juice/Vig
Sometimes called the “house edge”, the juice or vig can be described as the cost of spread wagers. Spread betting gives an advantage to the player (with improved odds) while vigs give an advantage to the sportsbook (with increased bet cost).
The best way to understand how the house edge works is to imagine the displayed number as the amount of cash you need to wager for a chance of winning exactly $100. For example, when the vig is -115, you will need to bet $115 to gain $100 plus your initial stake ($215 total).
How Are Point Spreads Calculated?
The odds for spread betting are sometimes called “handicapped” or “alternative” odds, meaning that they are different from the standard “moneyline” odds.
Since additional winning requirements are introduced, oddsmakers have to consider additional factors when determining spreads. The key element is the difference in “power ranking” between the teams, which is typically determined by the overall team composition, and total WLD history (win/loss/draw).
Oddsmakers also keep a close eye on the history of matches any two teams have had between each other. For example, the Chicago Bears and the Green Bay Packers are notorious for their rivalry spanning over 200+ games, and most oddsmakers tend to favor GBP because they won 107 games while the Chicago Bears won only 95.
All spreads are assigned on a match-by-match basis, though, as other factors like weather, home advantage, team transfers, and more.
Betting Against the Spread
The world of spread betting is very dynamic. The spreads and odds change over time when new events unfold in the real world – some players may suffer injuries; coaches may get substituted; certain teams may welcome MVPs from other clubs, and even something as unpredictable as freak weather conditions can have an impact.
Before you decide to bet against the spread rather than place simpler moneyline wagers on teams you believe will win, I warmly recommend you understand how this concept works first, so let me give you a few tips:
- The favorites/underdogs are “titles” assigned on a match-to-match basis. Two teams may have different statuses in two separate games if circumstances change.
- Take your time to choose the spread that suits your risk preferences, but don’t wait too long. The spreads will eventually get locked and you will no longer be able to place a bet.
- Consider the house edge before submitting your spread wagers. Even small rakes can pile up and drain your bankroll if you’re placing too many bets.
- Get informed about your favorite teams. Learn what you can about player injuries and transfers so that you can more accurately predict viable spread betting options.
Spread Betting Terms & Synonyms
- Covering the spread: fulfilling the additional conditions of handicapped wagers.
- Favorite: a team oddsmakers deem likely to win.
- Handicap: alternative odds common in spread betting.
- Juice (House Edge): the cost of spread wagers.
- Moneyline: non-handicapped (standard) wagering type.
- Point: a single unit representing the team’s score. For example, one goal in soccer equates to one point; a touchdown in football is equal to six points, and a field goal in basketball is equal to two points.
- Puck line: a synonym for “spread” in ice hockey. Puck line is the most common type of bet in hockey.
- PK: sometimes worded as “Pick’em”, PK describes a perfectly balanced match where spread betting is unavailable.
- Runline: a synonym for “spread” in baseball.
- Spread: the winning or losing margin the chosen team must cover to fulfill the betting condition.
- Underdog: a team oddsmakers deem likely to lose.
NFL Advanced Spread Betting
Spread betting NFL games is a massive industry in the US, and there is no shortage of top NFL handicappers and celebrity bettors who try to predict the spreads for each game. While most of predicting a spread is about researching both teams in a game, there are some universal statistics that you should be aware of.
Namely, how the scoring structure of football affects the winning margins in games. The most common winning margin in the NFL is 3 points. Here is a quick cheatsheet to show you the margins and how you can plan your spread bets.
| Margin of Victory | Occurrence in NFL Games | Best Spread on Favorites | Best Spread on Underdogs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 14.43% | -2.5 | +3.5 |
| 7 | 9.89% | -6.5 | +7.5 |
| 6 | 7.25% | -5.5 | +6.5 |
| 14 | 5.74% | -13.5 | +14.5 |
| 10 | 4.61% | -9.5 | +10.5 |
| 1 | 4.31% | - | +1.5 |
| 5 | 4.31% | -4.5 | +5.5 |
| 2 | 4.23% | -1.5 | +2.5 |
| 4 | 4.15% | -3.5 | +4.5 |
| 8 | 4.08% | -7.5 | +8.5 |
These universal NFL statistics, while helpful, are by no means set in stone. They are good to bear in mind, especially if you are torn between a spread of -1.5 and -2.5.
3 is really the magic number here, and so if you ever find margins close to 3, it is worth checking out alternative lines to max out the value on your bet.
