The betting term closing line value, or CLV for short, is the difference between the odds you received when you placed a bet and the odds when the market closes. You received CLV if the final odds are lower than your bet’s odds.
Closing line value might sound a little complex, but bear with me. Once I show you a few examples, you’ll quickly grasp this sports betting complex and be factoring CLV into your betting decisions.
Closing Line Value Explained
Sports betting odds are constantly shifting up and down based on the amount of wagering on each team. In a perfect world, sportsbooks try to balance the action so they profit no matter the outcome.
After you’ve placed a bet, the odds will continue to bounce around until the market closes and the sportsbook stops taking action. If the odds on your team go down and close lower than when you placed a bet, you got CLV.
Let’s say you bet $100 on the New York Giants to beat the Dallas Cowboys at -150; if the market closes at -180, you picked up CLV because your bet is worth more than if you placed the exact same wager when the sportsbook stopped taking bets. The bigger the difference in odds, the more value you receive.
A $100 bet at -180 only has a potential profit of $55.56, while a $100 wager at -150 has a potential profit of $66.67. You only have to bet $83 at -150 odds to receive the same payout as betting $100 at -180.
You can also get unlucky and pick up a negative closing line value. This is where the odds increase after you’ve placed a bet. Let’s say you took the Los Angeles Lakers to beat the Denver Nuggets at +180, if LeBron gets ruled out of the game, and the Lakers surge to a +250 underdog, you received negative closing line value.
How to Calculate Closing Line Value?
To calculate closing line value, you convert your bet’s odds to implied probability. You then take the no-vig closing line odds and calculate the implied probability. The final step is to subtract the implied probability of your bet’s odds from the no-vig closing line’s implied probability and multiply the result by 100.
Let’s say you bet on the Golden State Warriors to beat the New York Knicks at -170, and the no-vig closing line was -190. The formula would be 190/(190 + 100) – 170/(170 + 100) x 100. Your CLV would be 2.55%.
You can then calculate your expected value by taking the CLV and dividing it by the implied probability of your bet. You divide 2.55% by 62.96%, and you get an expected value of 4.05%. This means for every $100 you bet, you can expect to profit $4.05 over the long term.
Does Closing Line Value Matter?
The no-vig closing line offered by sharp sportsbooks is considered the true odds. It acts like a benchmark similar to the S&P500. Just like a top hedge fund manager consistently beats the S&P500, a profitable sports bettor regularly outperforms the no-vig closing line.
Beating the no-vig closing line doesn’t guarantee you’ll win your wager. However, if you outperform the true odds at least 50% of the time, you’ll be a long-term profitable sports bettor, granted you practice bankroll management.
How to Increase Your CLV?
A great way to increase your CLV is to get the jump on soft sportsbooks. How this works is you wait for important information to come out that will significantly alter the odds, like a star playing being injured. You then pull up the odds for a sharp and soft sportsbook, and if you notice a positive difference in the odds, you place a bet.
Let’s say the Golden State Warriors are paying -130 to beat the Denver Nuggets, but then Nikola Jokić gets injured, and the sharp sportsbook immediately drops the Warriors’ odds to -190, while the soft sportsbook only lowers the odds to -160. By betting on the Warriors at the soft sportsbook, you’re likely to beat the closing line, as the sharp sportsbook’s lines will more accurately reflect the true odds.
So now that you know what closing line value is all about and even a strategy on how to generate it, it’s time to put your new knowledge into practice. Keep track of your CLV over your next 10 bets to test your sports betting skills. If you can beat the closing no-vig line more than 50% of the time, you’ve got the makings of a pro!
