Fading is a popular tactic in sports betting where you bet against someone’s prediction. It can be applied to betting generally against what the public is betting on or against an individual’s bet.
It’s a simple concept. However, implementing it as a long-term betting strategy requires heavy research and preparation and a willingness to take a risk. After all, you must have a good reason why you’d oppose someone’s bet.
Glossary of Basic Terms in Fade Betting
Before I proceed with my starter’s guide to fading, I will briefly explain a few terms that are often used in conjunction with this betting term.
- Fading – Betting against what the public is betting or against an individual’s pick.
- Favorite – The team expected to win the game (image shows favorites marked in red). The favorite in betting always have lower odds than their opponents.
- Underdog – The side with unfavorable odds; expected to lose the game.
- Squares – Inexperienced bettors who lose most of their bets. Squares bet without conducting deep research.
- Sharps – The opposite of squares, sharps are experienced, skilled, and/or professional bettors who place well-researched bets and frequently win money.
Note: Squares and sharps, as specific betting demographics, can both impact the line movement at online sportsbooks.
How Does Fading Work: An Example
Let’s take an NFL team (Team A) vying for the championship but is in poor form, as seen by a streak of weak results over the past few games. Its next game is away against an average team (Team B) that is gaining momentum and exhibiting strong form that shows results.
The majority of squares supporting the favorite team (Team A) are likely to back their side to win simply because of the baseless reasoning that the team is bound to win their next matchup against a clear underdog and break the losing streak. This is an example of a bettor’s fallacy, but it can cause line movement.
On the other hand, sharps will analyze all the details, factor in possible injuries, find obscure stats and keep up to date with all developments surrounding each team and its rosters. If the data indicates a continuation of poor form for Team A, sharps will fade the team, effectively betting against the public.
Popular Bets for Fading
If you want to fade a certain team or player, you can place various types of bets.
- Moneyline – The most basic of bets in fading is a moneyline bet, i.e., a simple win-or-lose bet. When speaking of moneyline bets, the public always backs favorites to win. Yet, as I demonstrated with the above example, favorites will not always win.
- Betting the spread – The public often backs favorite teams to cover the spread. A recent experience I had betting on La Liga soccer giants FC Barcelona against underdogs Almeria indicated Barcelona would win by a 4-goal margin. I found this prediction unlikely as the championship was already decided, and Barca wasn’t exactly shining when it came to goals scored when playing away. I faded Barca to win by fewer than 4 goals. This was a well-informed bet, as the game ended 0-2 for FC Barcelona.
- Totals – Also know as Over/under bets involve betting against the total number of goals/points the public believes will be scored in a game. Squares like to think a game will always go ‘over’ the assigned points total, especially when you have absolute favorites.
- Props – Another useful bet type are prop bets for fading teams or players. You can fade a certain team to score fewer points than expected or a shooting guard/forward/quarterback to not score or score fewer points than anticipated. There are dozens of team props, game props, and player props.
Public Betting and Line Movement: Which Teams Should You Fade?
Oddsmakers at online sportsbooks factor in many variables to establish odds and draw action across multiple betting markets. But sometimes unfounded euphoria or betting trends can lead to line movement and create a discrepancy between the implied probability and the actual (true) probability of a given outcome.
Factors that are not based on fact can affect the public’s mindset. Betting portals, self-professed experts, tipsters, home advantage, and star athletes can all impact the way the public bets and inevitably lead to line movement and adjustment.
Sharps love to fade underdogs, but they do so cautiously. You should avoid fading absolute underdogs or away underdogs in poor form.
Tips & Tricks For Placing Smarter Fade Bets
- Don’t place blind trust in handicappers – You can fade either the public or seasoned handicappers. To fade a handicapper or betting expert, you must be familiar with their predictions. After all, these are experienced bettors and make their bets based on active research and analysis. But even seasoned handicappers can be often wrong, and following their picks blindly is ill-advised.
- Watch out for three-way moneyline – Try to avoid moneyline bets in three-way moneyline sports like soccer. Betting underdogs on the moneyline can be tricky, considering a tie is also possible.
- Betting on the home underdog – While not a foolproof tactic, betting the moneyline or spread on home underdogs is a popular fading strategy.
- The devil is in the details – It’s key to remember that the final result or a certain outcome can depend on minor but important variables and statistics that squares tend to disregard. In many cases, favorites will justify their status and win and strong teams and players will perform accordingly. However, poor form, injuries, or low morale can indicate a continuation of that poor form, regardless of the odds and betting trends.
- Implied vs. actual probability—You can never exactly know the actual probability of an outcome, but you can come close by doing your research. As a rule of thumb, if the true probability is identical to or lower than the sportsbook’s implied probability, the market offers good value.
Final Thoughts: Is Fading a Good Betting Strategy?
Fading is an easy concept to understand, but it’s an advanced tactic mostly used by sharps. Some sports and betting markets are more favorable for fading than others. If you’re a novice, I advise you to stick to straight bets (spread, totals, moneyline). Also, steer clear of moneyline bets in three-way moneyline sports.
Fading involves considerable risk. Each bet must be well-founded and preceded by targeted research. When doing your research, mind the form of a team and its key players and check the starting line-ups. Taking into account injuries, media coverage, professional sports analyses, and line movement can also add value to your bets.
