Juice is an important part of sports betting, as it is the cut that the sportsbooks take from your bets. Juice, also called vig, is something that all sportsbooks use, so you will not be able to avoid it, but you can choose to play at sportsbooks that use lower juice in their wagers. Less juice means more betting value, or squeezing out that little extra on all your wins.
A few cents here and there doesn’t do much, but over the course of a week or a month, it could make the difference between turning a profit and barely breaking even with your sports betting.
Theory of Juice in Sports Betting
When thinking about it, for the most part, sportsbooks don’t really charge you for depositing money, placing bets, or even withdrawing your money. Unless you are using a payment processor that incurs additional charges, but these charges don’t go to the top US sportsbooks such as DraftKings or FanDuel. No, instead they make their money when people lose bets.
But it is not as simple as that. Sportsbooks need to ensure that they will make a profit, over hundreds if not thousands of wagers, and they do that by adding a little juice, or vig, to the betting odds. The best way to clearly explain it is with an example of a simple game of heads or tails.
There is a 50% chance of the coin landing on heads or tails, so in theory, the odds should be +100. If you correctly guess heads, then a $10 bet should bring you $20, that is, double your staked amount. But no sportsbook will give you those odds. Instead, they will provide you with odds of -110, in the best-case scenario.
This means, that if you win your bet on heads, then you will receive $19.09 on a $10 bet. If 100 players bet on the round and 50 of them get it right, that means the sportsbook will not break even. But instead, they will make a profit of $0.91 x 50 = $45.50.
How Juice is Related to Probability
Implied probability is the likelihood of a bet winning, based on the odds given by the sportsbook. This is the implied chance of the bet winning. Probability can be calculated using the following formula.
1 / ( [100 / Negative Odds] + 1)
1 / ( [Positive Odds +100] / 100)
The positive odds have a slightly different formula to the negative odds, but the reason why the formula for both is so complex is because we have to turn them into decimal odds first, and then calculate the probability. A good shortcut here is to simply use our BettingTools Odds Calculator. It doesn’t only show you the decimal (and fractional) odds of your bet, but also automatically calculates the probability.
So then, let’s check out the implied probability of that coin toss.
Here, the IP of the bet is calculated at 52.38% for either heads or tails. That adds up to a total of 104.76%, which is not possible. The extra 4.76% is the juice, that the sportsbooks have skimmed off the odds. Just remember, the shorter the odds, the higher the Implied Probability.
How it Affects You As a Bettor
Now there are no betting sites out there with 0 juice, as they all need to make their money somehow. But there are a few things that you should know.
- Online sportsbooks have lower juice than retail
- Odds boosts don’t have 0 juice
- A good amount of juice is approx 4%
- Niche sports may have higher juice
Online sportsbooks don’t have to pay the same overhead bills and maintenance fees as their land-based counterparts. Therefore, the odds at DraftKings, Caesars, FanDuel and BetMGM (among others) are usually a lot better than going to retail sportsbooks at tribal casinos. 4% is a good amount of juice, but we have seen sportsbooks that charge up to 10% juice, which is a bit too much. A normal spread should come at odds of -110 on either side (or -115 / -105 up to approx -120 / +100). If the spread is set at -120 and -120, then the juice is around 9.1%, which is just too big.
Sports with better coverage naturally have lower juice, as there will most likely be hundreds, if not thousands, of bettors lining up to place those bets. However, if you go into more niche sports such as Darts, Jai Alai, Power Slap, Lacrosse, and so on, the juice may be a little higher. The sportsbook is not expecting the same volume of betting action on those wagers, so it will increase the juice to cover itself. This is very normal and doesn’t mean that you should avoid niche sports betting, just remember that the juice, or vig, is bigger.
Juice in Sportsbook Bonuses
Lots of betting sites offer Odds Boosts, Enhanced Odds Offers, and similar sports bonuses. In some cases, they are only enhancing the odds on a specific wager, or a preselected betting combination. But when they offer enhanced odds on a moneyline, and include both (or all three) possible outcomes, then you should know this. The juice will still be there, just extremely reduced.
In this example at bet365, we have enhanced prices on the entire moneyline market, for all three possible outcomes. We took the decimal odds format to make it easier to calculate the implied probability.
Italy @ 1.95 (-105) = 51.28%
Draw @ 3.4 (+240) = 29.41%
Belgium @ 4.1 (+310) = 24.39%
Total Implied Probability = 105.08%
Enhanced Prices
Italy @ 1.99 (-101) = 50.25%
Draw @ 3.48 (+248) = 28.74%
Belgium @ 4.2 (+320) = 23.81%
Total Implied Probability =102.8%
The original odds had a 5.08% juice, which is quite standard, but the enhanced odds on the moneyline market cut that down to 2.8%, which is extremely generous.
How Juice Affects Your Bankroll
Juice will not change your chances of winning, and at the end of the day, you have to win to make money. But looking at the bigger picture here, if your sportsbook charges less juice, then over the course of time, those extra cents do count up.
Let’s take the example of a regular NFL bettor, who places 10 spread bets each week. The bettor is signed up with a high-juice sportsbook where their spreads are charged at -120. Let’s say the bettor is quite experienced and wins 8 of those spreads in a week.
High Juice Sportsbook (9.1%)
Point Spreads @ -120 = $18.33 Win Per Bet
8 Wins = $100 Staked, $146.64 Won
$46.64 Profit
Now, if that NFL fan were to take their business to a sportsbook with less juice, and the point spreads come at odds of -110, this is how their week would have gone.
Low Juice Sportsbook (4.76%)
Point Spreads @ -110 = $19.09
8 Wins = $100 Staked, $152.72 Won
$52.72 Profit
Just extending that hypothetical scenario and saying they repeated this feat for 4 weeks, and that is already a good $24+ extra just from the juice. The results become a little more eye-catching when we use parlay bets.
How Juice Can Affect Your Parlay Betting
Let’s go for something that feels realistic, like the NFL bettor winning a 4-selection parlay comprised of 4 spread bets.
High Juice Sportsbook (9.1%)
4 x Point Spreads @ -120 = +1029
$10 Staked = $112.90 Won
$102.90 Profit
And now using the lower juice sportsbook.
Low Juice Sportsbook (4.76%)
4 x Point Spreads @ -110 = +1228
$10 Staked = $132.80 Won
$122.80 Profit
That is already nearly $20 better, and the margin between the two returns only becomes greater if we add an extra spread to that parlay. Of course, these are all theoretical numbers, but you get the idea. Over the course of a few weeks or months, we could be looking at hundreds of dollars, depending on how frequently and how much you bet.
What Strategies Are Impacted by Juice
Making money aside, juice directly impacts a few betting strategies, such as hedging, matched betting or arbitrage betting. These strategies play on discrepancies in the odds to create scenarios in which you will win money regardless of the outcome of a game. But, it can only be done when the juice is favorable, and for arbitrage betting you will need to shop around to find differences in the juice between various sportsbooks.
Even if you are not planning to hedge your bets or do some matched betting on your bonuses, juice is still extremely important and can play a big part in the bigger picture. By getting the most out of your wagered dollar, and looking for good value at your sportsbook, ultimately, you will feel the impact in your bankroll.
