Frequent bettors will be quite familiar with line shading, but they may not know exactly what it is called or how it works. This is basically when sportsbooks find popular bets such as moneylines on favorites or Over totals bets, and add a little extra juice on that bet.
It takes a little value out of those bets, and the sportsbooks generally target specific wagers that the general public wants to bet on. It is quite frustrating, but every sportsbook shades line to some extent – but that doesn’t mean you should avoid these bets at all. Instead, you should learn how to spot heavy shaded odds and lines, and know how to look for good value for your wagers.
What is Juice and Probability
Betting sites all take their cut from the action, and use juice to ensure they can turn a profit. They don’t charge you for making an account, nor do you have to pay any fees for topping up your account or withdrawing your winnings, that is, at any of the top US sportsbooks. Juice is needed for the sportsbook to make business, as they can’t just rely on making money from losses.
Before going into shaded lines, which is a specific type of juice, you need to know how probability and juice works. The odds on each wager have an implied probability, which is the chance that the bet will hit based on the odds given. Ideally, the IP of each wager in a betting market, such as moneylines, should add up to 100%. But this would not give the sportsbook any profit, so generally they inflate the IP so it lands in the 105 – 110% area.
Take a simple coin flip. We know that the coin has an equal chance of landing on heads as it does on tails, which would mean the odds should come at even money. But instead, the sportsbooks will offer odds of -110. To calculate the probability of the odds, we have to first convert the American odds into decimal odds.
Positive Odds (+): (Odds + 100) / 100
Negative Odds (-): (100 / Odds) + 1
So -110 would come out at 1.91 in decimal odds, and now we can calculate the IP using the following formula:
IP: 1 / Decimal Odds
The IP of a coin flip wager at -110 is 52.35%, meaning that both outcomes add up to 104.7%. The extra 4.7% there is the juice, and that is how the sportsbooks take their cut. If you want to quickly calculate juice and probability, you can save yourself the hassle and use our odds calculator.
It accepts odds in any format, and if you are using American odds than you can freely put in the + or – sign in front of the odds. Our calculator instantly calculates the decimal (and fractional) odds, also displaying the IP and how much you stand to win from the odds given.
How Shaded Lines Work
Juice is the additional 4.7% IP, but to understand exactly how juice works, we have to complicate the example a little. Let’s say that 60-70% of people prefer to pick heads over tails. The sportsbook will take advantage of this, and then the juice will not be equally distributed across both wagers. Let’s say they split the juice in a 2:1 ratio favoring heads. Therefore, the juice will be split: 3.13% and 1.56%
Heads: IP of 53.13%, Odds of -114
Tails: IP of 51.56%, Odds of -106
Its quite easy now to bet on this heads or tails game, assuming the coin has no heavier side and there is no bias on which side it is flipped from. No, this should be a straight 50-50 wager, but you would get more money betting on Tails, so therefore you would always bet tails.
But in sports there are no 50-50 games, and very rarely are two teams evenly matched. If instead of Heads or Tails, the example featured the Kansas City Chiefs @ Philadelphia Eagles, it would not be so clearcut. You can count the juice on the game, and the top sportsbooks are careful not to ramp up the juice too high. But it is hard to find out the value of the shade, as probability in sports is not an exactly clear cut science.
Where are Shaded Lines Most Used
Sportsbooks shade lines and odds on the most highly demanded bets. For example, let’s say that the Boston Celtics will host the Toronto Raptors. The Celtics are the heavy favorites in the game, and they have been scoring for fun in games of late, whereas the Raptors are on a losing streak and look a bit hopeless. In this case, the moneyline on the Celtics will have shaded odds. Bettors will either just go along and place a bet anyway, or they may feel more tempted to pick an alternate spread bet, for longer odds at higher risk.
But that is not the only area where the sportsbooks will take advantage of the demand for bets on the game. They also tend to target Overs bets, which bettors generally opt for instead of Unders bets. The oddsmakers may calculate a fair Over/Under line at 228.5 on this game, but can ram it up to 230.5, as they are anticipating most bettors to bet on Over. Spread bets are also affected, as the oddsmakers can offer a bigger line, at the expense of the Celtics. Betting against the spread on the Celtics will prove more difficult to win, but most bettors have already made up their mind about betting on the Celtics to bet the Raptors at home.
Example of Shaded Lines, Odds and Profit with Real Numbers
Let’s look at two examples, with different levels of shade to show exactly how much the sportsbook will make. To simplify, we assume that the favorite has a 66.67% chance of winning in each of their next three games. They will then go on to win 2 and lose 1, which means that odds of -200 are bang on the money. If you bet $100 on each of the games, you will profit $50 and $50 from the 2 games won, and then lose $100 on the game that the team loses. With shaded lines of just 10 and 20 cents, you will not break even.
| Shade (Cents) | Odds | Implied Probability | Extra Juice | Wins 2/3 Times: Sportsbook Profit (How You Fared) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fair Odds | -200 | 66.67% | 0% | 0 Profit (You Won: $300 - $200 Staked - $100 Lost) |
| +10 Cents Shade | -210 | 67.74% | 1.07% | $4.76 Profit (You Won: $295.24 - $200 Staked - $100 Lost) |
| +20 Cents Shade | -220 | 68.75% | 2.08% | $9.09 Profit (You Won: $290.91 - $200 Staked - $100 Lost) |
The last column represents how much the sportsbooks would make if you bet on the favorite all three times and they won 2 out of 3 games. The shaded lines makes them a profit by reducing your potential returns. And if you look at spreads or Over/Under bets, they can do the same thing by shading the lines. Generally, sportsbooks will shade the following types of bets:
| Types of Bet | Outcomes (Bold = Shaded) |
|
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Favorite Wins | Underdog Wins |
| Spread | Favorite Against Spread | Underdog Spread Boost |
| Totals | Over | Under |
If there are popular bets on players, such as Player to Score a Touchdown, or Passing Yards, you can expect the oddsmakers to shade the odds on a top player to score a touchdown, or on the QB to throw Over the Passing Yards betting line. It is usually biased to public opinion, and in Over/Under markets the bias is towards the Over lines.
Best US Sportsbooks With Minimum Line Shading
We have reviewed countless US sportsbooks, and found that smaller establishments and independent sportsbooks tend to have higher juice and more shaded lines. The bigger brands, such as DraftKings, Caesars or FanDuel, appeal to a wider audience and must keep their juice and shaded lines nice and low to keep their competitive edge.
All of the sportsbooks come highly recommended, but the offering varies quite a bit in each one. For more information regarding their sports coverage, bonuses, player contests and payment options, you can check out our reviews, and then head on to the sites to see how you like the platforms.
Shaded Lines vs Trap Games
The concept is quite similar, but there is a distinction to be made between shaded lines and trap game bets. Shaded lines can refer to trap game bets, but can be found on loads of Over markets, point spreads and moneyline bets on favorites. Trap bets involve hyped up games where one player or team is heavily tipped to win, and come at highly inflated odds.
For example, let’s say Tyson Fury fights against Daniel Dubois. The media furore backs Fury to win, and the trap game starts when the sportsbooks offer extremely short odds on him to win. Bettors are enticed by the seemingly globally-backed Tyson Fury, and the odds indicate that Dubios does not have a chance. This is the trap, as then bettors will assume Dubios doesn’t have a shot against Fury, and they will all chalk Fury. Trap games should be avoided at all cost, and you should do your homework before reading the odds and taking them for gospel.
How to Strategize Your Betting Around Shaded Lines
At the sportsbooks that we have highlighted above, competition is high and they have to keep their juice low. There is definitely some shade on highly demanded bets, but to retain the balance, the odds on the underdogs will be quite favorable. One top tip is to look for worthy bets on underdogs, and to not rule out underdog positive spread betting, or placing wagers on Under in total points markets.
My tip is to bookmark a good odds calculator and use it to get the probability of the odds, so that you can gauge the likelihood of the bet coming through, according to the odds given. You can also calculate what you think the probability should be, and using a strategy such as the Kelly Criterion, figure out how much of your budget you should allocate to a specific bet.
We have covered loads of different betting strategies here at BettingTools, and there are lots of betting combinations and tactics you can use to gain an edge. If you are ever stuck or need a little inspiration, I would point you towards our picks pages, where we regularly post new betting predictions and tips on upcoming sports events, for NFL, soccer, UFC and many more.
