Most games in professional and college sports will naturally have a favorite and an underdog. The sports betting odds will also reflect how oddsmakers feel about the match.
It is typically really simple to identify the underdog. In the current NFL season, for example, it is quite clear that the Carolina Panthers would be a moneyline underdog example against the Kansas City Chiefs. But, there are also occasions where the difference is much less noticeable and this is the trick to make underdog betting successful.
While the concept of underdog odds and favorite odds, with one team seemingly more likely to win in the eyes of many than the other, is straightforward, there is a lot more to gain from understanding and grasping this sports betting term in full.
What is an Underdog in Sports Betting?
In simple terms, betting on the underdog is you placing faith in a team or individual that is less likely to win the game. So, their opponent will go into the contest as the favorite.
Sports betting odds are a clear indicator of who is the underdog in a matchup. The odds will reflect their status whether it is for moneyline bets, point spread bets or totals. The only exception comes when an operator considers a matchup as to close to call, and this is known as pick’ems.
Underdogs can also appear in futures bets. Over the summer, the Green Bay Packers were getting a lot of love to make a Super Bowl run and they would certainly be considered an underdog at this point. If you can get some underdog betting tips in early, your potential returns could be huge. In underdog betting, you might also hear phrases such as long shot or dark horse.
How to Find the Underdog in a Match
For most games, you can identify the favorites and underdogs by what the odds suggest. Underdogs in the game will have positive spread numbers and moneyline odds, which shows that you can make a return of more than the value of your initial stake:
The above screenshot shows the selections highlighted in blue, with + and – signs clearly shown showing the favorites and underdogs.
You may see odds for a game such as:
Moneyline: Seattle Seahawks +180
Point Spread: Seattle Seahawks +4.5
While the favorite in this game will have negative numbers in both instances:
Moneyline: San Francisco 49ers – 155
Point Spread: San Francisco 49ers -3
The Pick’em games that we mentioned above are rare in the sports betting world. If this happens, oddsmakers believe the matchup is a true 50/50 encounter, and there is no clear favorite to win outright. In terms of the odds for these, the board might say both teams are -110. American betting odds are whole numbers, whereas in Europe you tend to find they use fractional or decimal odds. In both instances, the underdog is the higher of the two values.
If you are betting on individual player sports such as UFC or tennis, the same rules apply. There will, most of the time, be a clear favorite and an underdog.
Underdogs for Bet Types
Most sportsbooks will have three standard bet types listed next to the teams playing in a match: Moneyline bets, spread bets and totals. The first of these two indicates the favorites and underdogs in each game.
Spread Bets
On the spread, both teams will have their spread number and an associated odds number:
New York Mets +1.5 (-134)
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+112)
The spread number shows the underdog in the game. The odds for point spread bets will usually be in close range of around -110. If their is a big difference, than it indicates one team is attracting more attention.
Moneyline Bets
Detroit Tigers +124
Cleveland Guardians -146
In this MLB match, the Tigers are the underdogs based on the +124 odds given, while the Guardians are favoired with odds of -146.
Are Underdog Bets Profitable?
On paper, it might feel like an easy way to make some money quickly. Betting on the underdogs means that if you win, you will double your money at odds of +100, and the higher the odds go the more profit you will make.
As the odds increase, it also shows the difficulty level increases. In sports, upsets occur all the time and underdogs do win, but there are no guarantees that they will.
Of course, they are underdogs for a reason. You must understand that the potential return is higher as a consequence of you having a lower chance of winning the bet. There are some things you can do before placing your underdog bet to increase your chances, such as adopting some underdog betting strategies and looking out for some market opportunities to exploit.
Underdog Betting Strategies
There are several things you can do to make a profit from wagering on the underdog in sports. Some tips for real money betting on an upset you think you have identified include:
Do Your Research
It doesn’t matter if you have seen what you believe are attractive odds or you think you are ahead of the game, you must cover the basics. There are lots of factors that can affect an underdog’s chances of winning the game. The more informed you are on the variables and the more research you do, the better your chances are. Look at injuries, recent head-to-head matches, form, weather even travel schedules.
Don’t Jump in, Wait for Betting Lines to move
You should always be aware of when lines can change as the start of the game draws closer and people start putting down money. Even if you firmly believe betting on the underdog is the smartest thing to do, hold your horses and see if their odds improve, particularly if you are a long way out from the game starting. This is more relevant if it is a big underdog as the betting public loves to get behind a strong favorite. Always wait until you get the right price.
Don’t Listen to the Noise
Underdogs generally go under the radar. Sports media is always more likely to talk about Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs and a rising team that hasn’t won anything yet. When a team has all the hype and noise check out who they are playing as there is a good chance the underdog will be a very good price.
Odds & Implied Probability
Odds will tell you how much your bet will payout and also how much the sportsbook thinks there will be a chance of an upset. This is called implied probability. Our odds calculator can do all the work on this for you. If you see a team with odds of +150, the the implied probability is that the team is winning approximately 40% of the time.
Then, if you think the underdog has more chance of winning than that, then you should take the bet.
Should I bet on the Underdog?
I would recommend not focusing solely on the opposing team if you are simply only doing that because they are the underdog and you have dreams of how much you will win. As long as you remember that betting on the underdog carries greater risk and are comfortable with it, then go ahead.
