Public betting often muddies the betting lines and makes it difficult to gauge the real value of a bet. Learning about who the public is betting on, and what trends they follow is an integral aspect to understanding how oddsmakers come up with their prices and lines, creating both very high value wagers and inflated odds on seemingly safe sports bets.
On this page we will analyze what tools you can use to analyze and measure who the public is betting on, and also take a step back to see what forces drive these trends. This knowledge is crucial to any bettor who wants to turn a profit through their sports betting, as they all know how to spot a bargain when they see one. Also, we will dive into the ways sportsbooks can influence what the public bets on, and how to avoid falling into trap games.
Why Public Betting Doesn’t Work
Following the public may lead to more wins as the public generally backs the favorites in a game, but even if that is the case, it does not necessarily mean you will profit off following the crowd. This is because the odds supplied by the sportsbooks are precalculated to ensure that the oddsmakers will make a profit – even if the favorites only lose once every 5 or even 10 games. Here are the two tactics that they use:
Shading Lines
All sportsbooks use juice to ensure that they get their cut. This is basically skimming off a tiny fraction of the potential winnings so that over the course of hundreds of bets, they will turn a profit with the extra cents. Most bettors do not feel it, because we are only talking about a few cents on each line, but it can make a big difference between landing in the green or the red in your sports betting.
This juice is usually around 5-10%, depending on the sportsbook you use, the type of bet, and various other factors. But it is not spread out evenly. Instead, the sportsbooks will often add a little extra juice onto the more popular bets – this is shading the lines.
For example, let’s say that the public wants to bet a moneyline on the Seattle Seahawks to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The consensus is that the Seahawks are the favorites at a percentage of 66.67% (2/3).
The odds then should be:
Seattle Seahawks Moneyline @ -200 (66.67% Implied Probability)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Moneyline @ +200 (33.33% Implied Probability)
We have picked one of the best NFL sportsbooks, where juice is set at a relatively low 5%. In this case, the ideal way the juice should be split is 50-50 right? Well, it isn’t. Should the public predominantly bet on the Seahawks, the sportsbooks will not apply 2.5% juice to either bet, but place a little more on the Seahawks. Here is what a move of 1% or even 2% towards the betting public moneyline does for your bet. If you want to know which books offer the best juice, then you can read my guide to the best reduced juice betting sites.
| Juice on Odds | SEA Seahawks Moneyline Odds | Winnings on $10 Stake |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5% (equally split) | -224 | $24.46 |
| 3.5% (+1% shaded) | -235 | $24.26 |
| 4.5% (+1.5% shaded) | -241 | $24.15 |
You may think what’s the big deal with just 31 cents off every $10? Well in this example it may seem trivial. But let’s say that there are 4 similar moneyline bets and you want to make a parlay. That little 31 cents becomes $3.69 when you pick 4-leg parlays on those odds (-224 x 4 against -241 x 4). Check it out below:
Still not convinced? this value jumps up to $6.60 with 5 legs, and then up to $11.33 with 6 legs.
Trap Games
In addition to line shading, you need to keep an eye out for trap games. This is when the odds are so short that the public assumes the bet is an easy win. There are a myriad of reasons why the odds are so low, and it doesn’t help when the sportsbooks shade their lines considerably to make the bet seem all the more certain.
The sportsbook has no control on the outcome of these bets, but they can always keep shortening the most highly demanded bets. If those bets do win, the sportsbook does not need to payout such a large sum after shading the lines. This may prompt bettors to spend more on these lines, all the while just expecting that they are guaranteed winners.
Just ask yourself “are the odds long enough?”. If they aren’t, then move on and find another wager that is more fairly priced.
How to Find Out Where the Public is Betting
The most obvious way is to check the odds on a game. As a sports fan who keeps an eye on the standings, watches games, and knows who is who, most of us will be in agreement on which team is the favorite and which is the underdog.
But when either the margin between the odds is too high, or the spreads are massive, you will find that there is often a great deal of line shading and public betting going on.
But we are going to share a few additional tips to finding out what is going on behind the scenes.
Line Tracker Stats at Sportsbooks
Tracking the odds is crucial to understanding where the public is betting on. The odds at the start of the week will almost certainly shift right down to the last minutes before a game starts, which is when you get the closing line value.
There are lots of variables that can influence the way the odds shift, but the most common factor is public betting and spending. The majority of bettors will place bets a day or so before a game starts, which is when the oddsmakers align the juice to give them the best edge.
You can follow the odds manually or via odds trackers, but at some US sportsbooks, there are built-in odds trackers to help you out. DraftKings is a notable example of one of these sportsbooks, offering key data on the line shifts in the days preceding a sports game.
Using P2P Betting Apps for Real Value by Pro Bettors
Another top tip for sports bettors is to look at how much other bettors are pricing these bets at. Instead of browsing different sportsbooks to get true value for odds, simply head on to a P2P betting app, such as ProphetX or Novig.
Those platforms do not use oddsmakers, all the odds are made up by the customers. These customers must come up with reasonable odds that they can also sell, as they need a peer to bet against their wager for it to become active. Therefore, you get a really good idea on how much the odds should really be. Of course, these peer to peer betting apps do not have any juice, so the odds will be significantly lower than what you would get at a sportsbook.
The data can be used to gauge what the real value of the bet should be. If the difference between the odds at your sportsbook and at Novig (or any apps like Novig) are too large, then you can safely assume the line is heavily shaded.
You can either keep looking until you find odds at a better price, or dabble in peer to peer betting – it is actually a very viable option for many sports bettors in the US.
Checking Hot Bets and Preselected Parlays
In some cases, sportsbooks can use initiatives to boost public spending on a wager. They do this by creating odds boosts on specific lines, bonus bets for betting on certain games, and providing you with preselected parlay combos.
These are not bad initiatives at all, the bonuses can boost your potential rewards quite generously. But do bear in mind that the sportsbooks do this to attract more bettors. Thousands of bettors may back the boosted odds line, and while it has every chance of winning, it may not be the best option out there.
Similarly, there are programs such as the FanDuel Parlay Hub, where FanDuel shares the most highly demanded parlays. A lot of bettors will see these, then go ahead and stake some money on it themselves. Parlays are the best place sportsbooks can cram in some extra juice, and it is almost invisible. Just taking the example we used above (where $3.69 was skimmed off the top without attracting much attention).
We aren’t saying don’t use preselected parlays or the FanDuel Parlay Hub, but just be aware that you may find better options if you built parlays from your own tips. We like these preselected combos and parlay ads, they are useful for gaining some inspiration every once in a while, but generally, our experts don’t really use them for betting purposes.
What the Tipsters Are Saying
Tipsters are a great source of inspiration for bettors, but they are there to influence public betting. The best NFL handicappers have great influence on the mainstream market, and whether their tips go on to win or lose, you have to evaluate whether the odds are worth it or not.
One of the things we keep talking about here on BettingTools is the need to understand and value the odds. It doesn’t matter if you are betting on NHL Stanley Cup outrights or picking NFL props for Thursday Night Football. Our in-house betting tipsters always look at the odds first before writing their weekly betting tips.
By looking for alternatives and scouring the markets, they can provide you with better potential rewards for the risks you take.
The Most Common Markets in Public Betting
The public loves to bet on a favorite. This relates to both moneylines and betting against the spread. Most bettors prefer to bet on a negative spread against the favorite as opposed to betting on the underdog with a positive spread. Sportsbooks will often shade favorites bets, or set higher spreads that overestimate the favorite’s true margin.
They also tend to bet more on Overs in the totals markets. Perhaps it is because the bet can settle before the end of the game, or that any last minute goals/points/runs can tick the box. Whatever the cause is, the sportsbooks know this and usually shade overs markets.
Use Public Betting to Your Advantage
So now that we know how to spot public betting trends and identify which bets the public likes to bet on, you can use that knowledge to your advantage.
Betting odds must always be kept at a balance, to give either side a fair shot at gambling for the win. Just look at spread bets. Oddsmakers must settle on 1 spread for a game. They cannot say -3.5 on the favorites and +2.5 on the underdogs. The spread must be the same for both teams, and when they tip the line in favor of one, they are giving the other a much easier and more likely chance to win.
Wherever we find drastic margins or have suspiciously long or short odds, we find opportunities to make bank betting against those lines. Or, you can check the alternative betting lines markets (for total points and spreads), to adjust the lines to meet your needs. In soccer matches, the public doesn’t really like to bet on the draw, but there is great money to be made on those lines.
Most betting markets are influenced by the public. Whether it is betting on an top NFL quarterback’s passing yards, a proficient striker in a soccer club to score, or a hard-hitting tennis baseliner to deliver aces – if it is a high profile and popular match – there will be some shading.
We recommend you have a good few tools at the ready, such as our parlay calculator and odds calculator, which will show you exactly how much you could win with your parlay bets and show you the implied probability. Also, we would refer you to our betting strategy guides, where we break down the math and probability behind advanced betting tactics.
