Flat betting is a low-risk, bet-sizing strategy in which you set a stake, and use it across any and all of your wagers. You don’t change this stake depending on whether you win or lose, instead, you are aiming to build a steady stream of returns, and not jumping in on any betting hypes or trends. The theory is simple, but there are more advanced flat betting strategies that can entirely change the way you approach your sports bets.
This method of betting is quite prominent among casino gamers, especially those who play baccarat or roulette; however, it has practical uses in sports betting too. Flat betting is easier to track, avoids bettors tilting after heavy losses, manages any kinds of variance, and ultimately can be used a means to organically snowball your bankroll, and it is even more effective when merged with basic +EV betting principles.
What Is the Purpose of Flat Betting
Flat betting can be used by any sports bettor, it doesn’t matter how big your bankroll is, or which sports you bet on. As opposed to value betting, you don’t need to be signed up to the best US sportsbooks, or shop for better lines. Though if you are, you could combine a flat betting strategy with value bets for added impact.
The betting strategy involves creating a fixed rate for all your bets is pure risk management. You aren’t going to bet more aggressively on a gut instinct, or buy into seemingly “guaranteed winners”. It requires betting discipline and a calm head when assessing your options and placing bets. A flat bettor has no fear of missing out, or doesn’t look at a high +EV bet and want to suddenly go all in to make a sizable profit. The benefits are that you won’t run into heavy losses, and it is a lot easier to record your bets and track your results.
There are a few shortcomings too. Most flat bettors pick stakes worth 1% or 2% of their entire bankroll, so if you have $100 a month, you are looking at $2 bets. On the whole, there aren’t as many larger returns, as your stakes are low and you aren’t going to win those mega parlays very often (statistically speaking, that is). So prepare yourself for a much slower, and hopefully steadier bankroll growth.
Handling Short Term Variance
Variance is the displacement between the paper odds probabilities and what happens in real life. Let’s say you flip a coin 10 times, the paper form outcome should be 5 tails and 5 heads. In that case, the variance is 0. But if the coin lands on tails 7 times, there is a little variance in the results. Should it land on tails all 10 times, the variance is higher. 10 flips is not much, and we could write off the 7/10 tails or 10/10 tails outcomes as a result of short term variance. If you were to flip that coin 100 times though, it would be much more surprising if 70-100 flips landed on tails.
Variance is generally higher in the short run, but should balance out in the idealized long run. But theory will only take you that far. In practical terms, the odds are fixed and each flip is a completely separate event from the last. The typical gambler’s fallacy, in which people think the previous results affect the next, is a complete myth. So if the coin lands on heads 60 times and on tails only 30 times, you shouldn’t assume that the last 10 flips should lean more towards tails. It should, in theory, to balance out the results, but in practice, the coin flips don’t work with retroactive corrections.
How Flat Betting Mitigates Risk in Short Term Variance
You won’t suffer much from short term variance if you are using a flat rate of 1-2% of your entire bankroll on each bet. In the long term, the displacement in the actual results from the paper form should find a measured balance. If your results are poor in the short run, don’t worry, as you can always work on building in the long run. But not all sports have possibilities to think about long term variance.
For example, NFL teams will play 17 games during the regular season, with an optional +4 in the playoffs (including wild card playoffs). You don’t have many games to base your statistical analysis on. And, with only 17 games to assess, there could be high short term variance
On the other end of the spectrum, MLB teams have 162 regular season games to play. Not only do they have more games, but these are held in series formats, in which teams play 3-4 games against one other opponent on consecutive days. It is perfect for bettors in one way, as you can override any short term variance and have loads of betting opportunities. But pitcher rotations, fatigue, H/A form, and many other aspects are accentuated in the highly congested schedule.
Exploring Volatility in Sports Betting
Volatility is a word you come across a lot in casino gaming, especially slots. You have high volatility slots, low, and even medium volatility games. In slots, volatility relates to how regularly the games pay out, and the amount they pay out in. A low volatility slot pays out more often but in smaller amounts. High volatility means you need to wait longer for any wins to come your way, but when they come, they tend to be a lot larger.
In sports betting, we get the odds so we know the chances of a bet winning (unlike slots where you have paytables and volatility to give you an inkling). But taking away the odds for a minute, you can still assess volatility in the bets by frequency. An example of low volatility betting markets is something like Over 0.5 goals in soccer, or betting on 6.5 point favorites in the NBA. These bets should win regularly, as the probabilities indicate, but the returns are smaller.
For high volatility bets, you can look at underdog betting, or any other wagers that continuously have longer odds. NFL overtime bets are extremely high volatility bets, much more so than, for example, MLB, where Extra Innings occurs around 10% of the time. Or, NHL where over 20% of the games have to be decided in Overtime.
Where Flat Betting Can Manage Volatility in Sports Betting
Pick the low volatility bets, and you should make more consistent returns, but on a smaller scale. This is quite easy to manage if you are flat betting, and you can look back at your historical results to tweak any future bets for success. You are building and hopefully snowballing your bankroll steadily. Flat betting is quite effective in high volatility bets too, as you can sustain your bankroll for long enough to hit the wins.
You may lose 3 bets in a row on +400 underdogs, but win the 4th one, and come out in a profit. And should those longshot bets win twice in a row, then suddenly you are way in the green. Winning and losing streaks, which are a result of variance playing on the volatility of the results, will have no significant impact on a flat bettors bankroll.
Flat Betting Parlay Strategies
Straight bets have a much lower volatility when compared with parlay bets, even if you are combining moneylines on heavy favorites. The chances of those favorites winning may range in the 67% to 80% range (based on the odds and stats), but the probability that they will all win, and no upsets will occur, are much shorter. Variance is far more dangerous where parlay betting is concerned, as there is an enhanced chance that 1 or 2 of your bets may lose, which is enough to ruin your parlay bet.
But with flat betting, you are mitigating the potential risks each bet carries by only staking a fixed amount. This is arguably where flat betting is most effective for sports bettors, because with flat betting you can sustain more losses or even losing streaks. And when the win does come around, hopefully, you can make back the ground lost during the losing streak.
Tracking and Optimizing Your Parlays
Recording your bets and tracking Gross (and not Net) wins/losses is what expert betting strategists do. With a fixed stake, it is much easier to run the numbers, and you don’t have to aim for a specific range with your parlay returns. No, you can experiment with more legs, higher risk, or cut the risks with teasers or reducing your picks. Flat betting accommodates all of this, though if you are making high risk, high volatility parlay bets, then you will have to set your fixed stake rate pretty low, possibly around 1% of your entire bankroll.
With a strong foundation on the financial side, you can concentrate on getting the most out of your picks. You aren’t going to go bust anytime soon with your flat betting regimen, so you can diversify your picks and experiment with different parlay types. Such as SGPs, SGPx, round robins, or alternate full cover wagers.
You can track your gross spending and analyse which types of parlays are bringing in the wins. Factoring in variance, you can identify the bets that are most profitable in your strategy, and where your efforts are best used.
Making Your Flat Betting Bankroll and Strategy
To start using flat betting in your sports wagers, you will need to consider the following:
- Bankroll: How much money can you afford to spend, are you a budget bettor or a high stakes betting enthusiast. Make a bankroll timeframe, such as a month or a week. You will only top up in these timeframes, and spend an amount that you can afford to lose. Then, after you have the framework for your bankroll, you can break it further into amounts you will stake
- Betting Frequency: How often you bet. Do you consider yourself a weekend betting specialist, or an everyday wagering enthusiast. Also, by frequency, how many bets you place during those NFL weekends or when your favorite teams are playing. You need to define a range of the number of bets you place in your bankroll timeframe
- Market Volatility: Do you lean towards the high risk, big returns bets, or prefer to bet on favorites with low volatility in the outcomes. Higher risk bets need lower stakes, so that you can sustain a larger volume of potential losses before the big wins come your way
- Types of Bets Used: Straight bets are easier to manage, but don’t have the same potential to bring bigger returns. Parlays are more vulnerable to variance, but they can significantly enhance your bankroll
Flat betting requires patience and discipline. If you break from the strategy for even one bet, you risk compromising the narrative and can potentially undo any progress you make.
Combining Flat Betting with Value Betting
Value betting is huge in America, and there are countless AI powered betting tools and software to help players locate high betting value. This can actually tie in nicely with flat betting, as you have the measured bankroll to analyze your outcomes more thoroughly. It also helps you determine the actual +EV that these software are coming up with.
For instance, you use a betting tool that can pinpoint regular +EV of 10% or higher. Instead of following it without question, you can test these picks with flat stakes, and measure the results after the bets have settled. No two value betting software use the same programming or algorithms to determine value. They may use different statistics, or have their own calculation methods based on the market odds.
We use flat betting to gauge the value of the picks at different betting tools and platforms, and that way we can spot their individual strengths. Of course, you cannot ignore variance, and no value betting strategy will guarantee profits. It may take time to see any palpable returns, and as with all betting strategies, you cannot afford to get complacent. Always adjust, continuously analyze, and capitalize on betting trends where you can.
Alternatives to Flat Betting
The alternatives to flat betting are all the strategies where you don’t fix your stakes, it can be a measured response to the +EV, or a stake sizing strategy that is purely a mathematical numbers game and nothing to do with sports.
If flat betting is not for you, then you can always look into any of the following betting strategies.
Arbitrage and Hedged Betting
The theory behind hedged betting is that you back contrasting lines of a betting market, to win regardless of the outcome. To do this, you need to have multiple sports betting accounts, and look for larger market discrepancies. It only works at sportsbooks with reduced juice, or those that provide one-off bets that are dramatically different from the market consensus.
With arbitrage betting, you cannot place the same amount of money on two contrasting bets. The stake must be proportionate to the odds, so that if either bet wins, you should be able to make a small profit. The returns on either bet should cover the stake of your other bet, and also make profit on top of that. Arbitrage betting is not technically illegal, but sportsbooks don’t like it when you use these strategies. If they suspect you of arbitrage betting, they may refuse to take your bets.
Matched betting is like arbitrage betting, but instead of funding two contrasting bets with real money, you will fund one (or both in rare cases) with a bonus bet. The bonus bet, or bonus cash, cannot be redeemed for money, so this strategy revolves around hedging a bonus bet. Your goal is to place bets proportionate to the odds, and to arrange it so that if either wins, it will cover your real money stake. The bonus bet stake itself is not included in the returns, which has to be considered. But with a betting calculator or matched betting software, you can work out how much you need to place, and which bets have the best hedging opportunities.
Then, there is middles betting, where you pick wagers with a betting line and create a small overlap. This means, there is a small possibility your hedged bets will both win, and you will make much larger returns. There are various other alternate hedged betting strategies, but all of them involve backing contrasting lines and using different stakes to effectively fix a profit regardless of what happens.
Progressive Betting Strategies
In progressive betting strategies, instead of using a fixed stake, you change your stake after each wager based on whether the last one won or lost. The most famous is the martingale strategy, in which you double (or triple) up after a loss, to aggressively pursue wins.
There are also more balanced betting progressions, such as Fibonacci or D’Alembert, which don’t just increase your stake, but they can also see you reduce your stake, based on previous results. The pro here is that you can capitalize or mitigate losses on streaks, and manage variance with more aggressive stakes or conservative wagers. The big shortcoming of progressive betting strategies is that they are really designed for fixed-odds bets. Such as roulette bets. Odds for sports betting change continuously, and even if you back the same team every week, the odds will fluctuate depending on who they are playing, whether they are playing home or away, and many other factors.
Can I Mix Flat Betting and Progressive Betting Systems?
Anything is possible when betting on sports, and if you want to dabble in a little of both, you can flat bet and use hedged bets. But the one snag is that you should keep separate bankrolls, for either, as the systems directly contrast each other.
You could put half your bankroll into a flat betting strategy, and allocate the other for hedged or progressive betting systems. Just remember that to record your results without distorting or miscalculating them, you need to track the progress independently.
Bankroll Management and Gambling Responsibly
There is no right or wrong way to bet on sports, variance and shocks can happen at any time. An expert bettor with keen insights may lose a bet that an inexperienced neutral won on a fluke. If there are any right or wrong ways to bet, it all relates to how much you spend and your emotional response to betting. Gambling responsibly is a must, and flat betting is a great way of maintaining control.
Creating a bankroll is really the best way you can avoid overspending. Set deposit limits and form the ideal bankroll that you are happy to gamble with. That way, you avoid those tilts or reckless urges to make high risk bets on an impulse. You may win those impulsive bets, but it doesn’t make it a healthy practice. Because it can also lead to heavy losses and even compulsive betting habits.
Unlike casino gaming, there is something quite personal about sports betting. It is your expertise, or your knowledge of the game that is on the line. This makes it more exciting to place sports bets, but can also lead to greater remorse when you lose. Discipline and patience are your most invaluable tools where betting is concerned. And you also need to be able to accept losses, however big the upset or close the margins were. Flat betting is perfect for mitigating these losses, and also helping you to recover, plan ahead, and work on ways to optimize your future picks.
Pick the Best Sportsbook for Flat Betting
You don’t need to sign up at multiple sportsbooks to make flat bets. There are perks to having just one book, in that all your money is in one place, and as you spend more there than across numerous platforms, it is easier to earn loyalty rewards and opt into bigger reload bonuses. Of course, if you do are signed up at more than one book, you can always use flat betting strategies across your various accounts.
It is one of the easiest, and most manageable strategies for bettors. You can do it at any book, but we would recommend shopping around and looking for a sportsbook that delivers what you need. Each book has its own strengths, and if you read our independent reviews, you can learn more about their offering. Then, you can make a confident choice, and pick the sportsbook that enhances your betting experience.
