Call it your gut instinct, sports knowledge, or common sense, the reasoning you use to make your picks and stake your betting predictions is unique, and yours alone. The other side of betting is packed with algebraic expressions and mathematical formulas, which the US public is becoming increasingly aware of, and trying to work out to gain an edge. And while math alone won’t pick the winners for you, it can go a long way to getting you onto the green and on the road to success.
There are loads of systems and mathematical betting strategies out there, and these are designed to be used in conjunction with your sports knowledge and hunches. There are mathematical strategies to gain an edge in virtually every aspect of your betting. From sizing your stake to betting two sides of the same line to win regardless of the result. Here, we will go through some of the most popular math-driven betting strategies, so you can learn how they work, and apply a few into your sports betting to optimise your bankroll and get the most out of your sports predictions.
Types of Mathematical Betting Strategies
From a strict point of view, sports betting is a game of numbers. Oddsmakers crunch the probabilities to give you an estimate, and you buy the wagers you think can win. All betting platforms, even the best US sportsbooks, apply their juice to the odds, taking their invisible cut, and bettors choose whether the odds are worth the pop or not. The two main questions you ask are:
- Which bets to take
- How much money you stake
Of course, we can roll in a bunch of other questions, such as whether the bet should be tied into any parlay wagers, is there a cash out function to give you some chance to save your money, and many more. But basically we can break the process of placing a bet into two steps. And for both, there are mathematical betting strategies that you can use to optimize the betting opportunity and get the most out of your prediction.
| Mathematical Betting Strategy Breakdown | |
|---|---|
| Choosing the Bet | Setting the Stake |
| Expected Value | Bankroll planning |
| Calculating winning probability | Tracking bets |
| Odds shopping | Progressive betting systems |
| Vig/juice evaluation | Kelly betting |
| Data-driven projections or simulations | Arbitrage strategy |
| Comparing similar betting markets | Bonus conversion (matched betting) |
| Looking for betting trends and form insights | Alternate hedge betting |
Some mathematical systems go hand in hand with each other, such as calculating the winning % of a bet, and comparing it against other wagers. Or, building data-driven projections based on the stats, and then calculating how much you should stake on the bet based on your findings.
Then there are hedged betting strategies too, in which you don’t really care about the winning % or which bet will win. Those strategies focus purely on making a profit based on the discrepancies in the odds. They are games of numbers, not relating to the sports at all – meaning you don’t need to have any knowledge of the sport, or follow it at all.
Below, we will look at some of the most common mathematical betting strategies and give you a summarized guide on how you can use them.
Picking the Bet
A game is coming up, and you have a hunch on who will win, how many points will be scored, or which player will shine. You collect your ideas, open your betting account and start looking at the bets. Instead of just picking off the ones you like best, the mathematical betting approach here would have you look at the match odds given, compare them, determine the value of the odds, and then only add the bets that meet your requirements.
Odds Valuation and Value Finding
Value finding goes hand in hand with making the predictions themselves. When looking for betting value, you are browsing the price on a specific wager at different sportsbooks, looking for the one that has the longest odds. The better the odds, the more you can win, and even if it is just a few cents on each bet, it does add up. Especially when you are parlay betting, and the odds of each wager are compounded together. If you are shopping for odds, you will need to have accounts at multiple sportsbooks, so that you can get the right price.
The principle of evaluating the odds is to take the odds provided at your sportsbook, and work out their implied probability by taking the mathematical inverse. This is done by converting the odds to Decimal Odds, divide 1 by the decimal odds, and then multiplying by 100 to get a percentage.
Implied Probability [%] = 1 / Decimal Odds x 100
A -200 odds wager has a 66.67% chance of winning, according to the odds. Now, do bear in mind that sportsbooks apply juice to their bets, which is why the winning % may look higher than your expectation. And juice is not distributed evenly across opposing lines of a betting market. No, sportsbooks shade their lines, applying extra juice to those “popular” lines. In moneyline bets, it is generally the favorite that gets shaded, meaning slightly more juice on them to win. And why? Because those are the bets that the public flocks to, and where the books can make the most money, statistically speaking.
Peer to Peer Betting and No Vig Wagers
Juice gives the sportsbook a house edge, though it is not like casino games where we can actually count the house edge based on the possibilities. No, they are also using AI-powered projections and statistical analysis to simulate outcomes and determine the probabilities. There is no way to bypass the juice at conventional sportsbooks, but you can at peer-to-peer betting exchanges.
These are basically marketplaces where sports bettors can bet against each other directly, and no juice is involved. You set a price for the wager, and then submit your stake (also called liability on betting exchanges). Then, if one of your peers stakes an opposing bet on the same line, your bet is activated. This way, no juice is involved, but these peer to peer betting apps will take a small commission on your winnings. This is smaller than the juice you would be paying, and is distributed evenly across all wagers – there is no shading.
Stats Based Mathematical Strategies
From theory to strategy, statistical analysis is a great way of getting an edge in your sports betting. By analysing the stats, you can gauge a winning % and see if it lines up with the EV of your chosen wagers. You can do this in several ways, comparing H2H data, measuring points scored/conceded, H/A form, and more.
Though to make your life easier, there are many AI sports betting tools that do statistical analysis and crunch the stats to generate game simulations or probabilities. Be cautious, as each platform uses its only algorithms and sources the data differently. Apps like OddsJam, Outlier.Bet, HoF Bets and Props.Cash source vast quantities of data to feed their algorithms. Thus, you are getting a more accurate calculation.
But you can take things into your own hands at apps like Rithmm, where you can build the models based on the stats you want to use, and generate the simulations yourself.
Stats based analysis is not just used to get +EV or calculate winning possibilities. It is also used to pick out trends in player or team performances. Such as an NBA player prop on a player who has scored 10+ points in his last 5 games. Or a soccer team that has got 4+ corners in their last 6 games. It helps you locate trends in niche betting markets, seizing potentially golden odds.
Strategies Based on Your Stake
Now you have your chosen picks, crunched out the value and winning possibilities. There are a number of different strategies that revolve just around how much money you stake.
This is a step most casual bettors don’t take, as they either just pump in a generic amount such as $10, or use whatever funds they have left on their betting account. With these mathematical strategies, you will plan out a staking system, and allocate the funds based on your long term vision.
Progressive Betting Strategies
These are strategies in which you make betting units, and then change the units after each bet – based on whether you lose or win. It is not so common in betting circles, progressive betting systems are more widely adopted by casino gamers, such as someone using a martingale progression during roulette.
The main issue is that for these progressive betitng systems, you generally either need a fixed odds wager that remains the same price every week, or to constantly change the betting units in proportion to your wager. But it can be done, and progressive betting systems can be extremely effective in sports betting.
The martingale system, which is perhaps the most famous one, involves you doubling your stake after losses, aggressively pursuing a profit. It is effective if you can consistently find bets with the same odds, and have a tremendous bankroll. Or, if you start extremely low.
But there are many alternatives out there, that are more balanced. The Fibonacci, Masaniello, D’Alembert and Paroli systems use a mixture of increasing and decreasing betting units. The idea is to overcome any variance in your sports betting, mitigate losses, and give your bankroll a more organic and consistent growth path. For instance, in the Masaniello strategy you will increase your bet after a win, and decrease it after a loss. It aims to enhance your returns on a winning streak, and play more cautiously when you lose.
As the odds vary greatly in sports betting, it gives you greater freedom over your progressive betting strategy. Though you can always stick to -110 spreads or -110 totals bets, and track your progress more easily.
Bet Sizing Based on +EV
+EV isn’t just used to gauge which bets are worth taking, or getting the most of your stake. You can also apply a mathematical staking strategy, in which you only allocate a portion of your funds relative to the value of the wager.
The Kelly Criterion betting strategy involves comparing the True Value against the Expected Value, and then sizing your stake based around that. Say you find a moneyline on a favorite that is priced at -150 (1.66 Decimal Odds), that has an implied probability of 60%. But you think the chances of them winning are actually closer to 80%.
The kelly criterion formula sizes up the implied probability against the true probability of losing, and crunches out a percentage of your overall bankroll that you should put on the wager. In this case, where you think the bet has a 20% chance of losing and the IP is 60%, your kelly criterion calculator will recommend you bet nearly 50% of your bankroll. It is a confident pick, based on your probability estimate, and you should go in hard on it. But for instance if you thought the bet would only have a 50% chance of winning, the Kelly Criterion calculator will tell you to avoid this bet.
You can also use half kelly or fractional kelly strategies, which use the same theory, but are not as aggressive. If you are using half kelly, basically this divides the “fully kelly” recommended stake by 2. A fractional kelly can range from 0.1 up to 0.9, you can adjust this to your liking. Some AI betting tools have integrated kelly criterion units, but if they don’t, you shouldn’t worry. You can use our kelly criterion calculator to quickly get the % you need to stake. Just remember it needs your estimate on how likely the bet is to win. This is something you can source at your AI betting tool.
Hedged Betting Systems
The most well known hedged betting strategy is arbing, or arbitrage betting. This is a practice in which you scan the betting markets, looking for discrepancies in the odds provided by different sportsbooks, and bet on opposing lines of a betting market in a way that profits regardless of which bet wins.
Sportsbooks don’t look favorably on arbitrage betting, as, in theory, this betting strategy can guarantee profits to players. So arbing must be done carefully, and players should cover their tracks by betting at various sportsbooks to avoid detection. Arbitrage betting is difficult to master without betting software apps like SureBets or BetBurger, which locate the arbing opportunities for you. Doing it manually, you may be able to hit around 3% ROI on your arbitrage wagers, but it will take a lot of time. With the software, you can hit ROIs of up to 10%.
Matched betting is the other mathematical hedged betting strategy that a lot of bettors turn to. Also called bonus conversion strategies, it works in the same way as arbing, only you are funding one of the betting markets with a bonus bet. That way, the profits can reach up to 50% or go even higher, depending on the wagers you pick.
Besides those two, there are also alternative hedged betting strategies such as middles, dutching, live hedged betting, and even futures hedged betting strategies. These use the same concept, but in middles betting you cover betting markets with lines (spreads or totals, for example), and use a little overlap. With dutching you don’t cover every single possible outcome, but only the most probable ones, thus there is some risk, but the ROI is higher than arbing.
Live hedged betting can yield some pretty stellar results, especially when you consider how the odds can fluctuate, and any cash out possibilities. Similarly, futures bets can also have cash out functions, and as you have a whole season to pick out good prices and hedge your original wagers, the possibilities are far more palpable.
Starting Your Mathematical Betting Strategy
Our Betting Tools guides and blog posts delve into the details of these mathematical betting strategies and help beginners make customised plans to fit their betting style and bankroll. It is really easy to get started, and for any math whizzes out there, you can go into extreme detail with your strategies; there are endless possibilities to personalize and optimize your goals.
Sign Up With Numerous Sportsbooks
Holding accounts at multiple sportsbooks has loads of benefits, and you don’t necessarily need to have a convoluted betting strategy to get them. At a base level, if you have joined multiple sportsbooks, you can browse the odds to see which site has the best returns on your prediction. You can also benefit from having more sports bonuses, opting in to more boosts, and gaining bonus funds through reload deposit offers.
Of course, it also depends on which state you are betting out of. Some legal sports betting states have very few legal sportsbooks to pick from, as the state laws are more restrictive or there are limited partnership possibilities for the operators. In those cases, you can expand your horizons by looking at DFS apps, social sportsbooks and peer-to-peer betting apps, which are far more widespread than conventional, real money sports betting sites.
Get Yourself a Handy +EV AI Betting Tool
There are tons of betting software and tools to explore, and each one has its own special features, data aggregators, and coverage. We have tested the vast majority of the ones you should be aware of, including the likes of OddsJam, Props.Cash, Outlier.Bet, Pikkit, and others.
A lot of these are subscription-based, but you can use our promo codes to unlock discounted first months (or get free trials at some), to get a taster of what they can do, and see which one works best with your strategy.
At a base level, we are talking about odds shopping, CLV tracking, stats crunching and even +EV spotting. The cheaper tools will cover these areas, with some focusing more on, for example, the statistical analysis than the CLV tracking.
If you opt for a more expensive package, you can expect a more holistic tool that does all of those, as well as analysing arbing opportunities, middles bets, bonus conversion, and much more. The +EV picks will not be the same at all apps, it all depends on the statistics and mathematical formulas they use to get their projections, so while the value may be high, remember that they are not guaranteed winners.
Plan Your Bankroll and Track Your Bets
Nothing works more in your favor than planning ahead and building a bankroll. This gives your betting more of goal, and it is something all confident and strategic bettors do. Think about how much you can afford to spend, project the amount by which you want your bankroll to grow, and keep space for losses. Think of the bigger picture.
Tracking your bets gives you more control over your bankroll. You can assess your spending, see where your efforts have made the biggest impact, and continuously tweak your strategy. Some betting tools have inbuilt bet trackers and personalised portfolios that make your job easier.
Math is a part of betting, but it doesn’t need to be boring or tedious. Quite the contrary, you can use the theory to gain an edge, and bet smarter, not harder.
