Injuries are all part of the game, and NBA players know this, but it doesn’t necessarily need to ruin your bets. In fact, some sports bettors specifically bet against injured players to make the most of the uncertainty of their physical condition. It is a gamble, but when done right, you can come away with a weighty payout.
The possibilities will not always line up, and even when they do, we may not have all the information regarding the severity of an NBA player’s injury. Nevertheless, through careful research and a keen eye, betting against NBA players can turn huge profits, and there is one sportsbook condition that works heavily in your favor.
Conditions to Know About Betting Against NBA Players
Player bets require your chosen player to take the court in the game, and so long as they do, the bet stands. This means, that if your sportsbook offers a pregame player prop on an injured player and they get some game time, your bet will not be made void.
Say you bet against an injured player, placing a wager on them to make Under a specific number of points. If the player’s injury flares up during the game they may be forced to sit out the rest of the game. If they have also failed to hit the line and you bet against them, you will win your bet. It doesn’t matter whether they played half the game, just a quarter, or even less than that.
The rules at DraftKings and FanDuel both state that so long as the player makes an appearance during a game, any bets on them will stand.
Now the oddsmakers know about this loophole, and in some cases, they may avoid providing props on injured players entirely. When players have severe injuries or a player is officially listed as questionable, doubtful, or out for a game because of an injury, you will rarely find sportsbooks taking bets on that player.
How to Bet Against Injured NBA Players
The top NBA sportsbooks have a tremendous array of player bets and props for you to choose from. These relate to their in-game achievements, usually NBA player props on their offensive stats.
- Points
- Threes Made
- Rebounds
- Assists
You can find many combinations of these bets, such as Points+Assists, Points+Assists+Rebounds, and so on, and the top NBA betting apps provide you with over/under markets on these in-game stats. They may even provide you with H2H betting props on 2 NBA players – including H2H Moneylines, H2H Totals and even H2H Spread bets.
There will be no shortage of opportunities to bet against an injury-ridden player, but not all player props allow you to bet against a player. For example, the Double Double or Triple Double markets only allow you to bet on a player to make a double double, and not against them pulling it off.
Betting Odds Against Injured Players
The match odds may be slightly shorter than normal on players who are returning from an injury or have persisting problems. Though as the majority of your options use the Over/Under betting format, you will not really feel the difference in the match odds.
Instead, the difference will be defined in the betting lines. Players in form generally have higher betting lines on their props bets. For example, take a shooting guard who is in great form. He may have Points Scored betting lines of 25, 27 or 29, and the odds for betting over or under would come at nearly even money.
However if that player is returning from an injury, you shouldn’t be surprised if the betting line is considerably lower. You have to gauge these lines and assess them based on the severity of the injury, the time they spent out, and any other external factors that can have an impact on their game achievements.
Keeping Up To Date on NBA Player Injuries
Research is a must if you want to make the most of betting against injured NBA players. NBA.com submits regular injury reports by 5 PM local time on the day before a game. Another thing to note: sportsbooks generally offer odds on NBA games a day in advance, so you will have to be quick with your bets. The day before a game, you will get an injury report and the pregame odds will go live. Then, you can quickly check whether bets are offered on any players who are listed as:
Probable
The players listed as Out will have no bets for obvious reasons. Sportsbooks don’t give bets on players who are officially listed as Doubtful, but they may, on rare occasions, provide bets on injured NBA players listed with a Questionable status. But for the most part, you should hunt for the word Probable in that list, and check out the nature of their injury.
In the above example, we analyzed a game between the Golden State Warriors and LA Lakers in which Lebron James and Gabe Vincent were labeled as Probable, and found props against them. DraftKings listed a few props on these players, in the Over/Under format, opening up the possibility to bet against these injured players.
LeBron, in the recovery management phase of a left foot injury, and Gabe, who has a left knee contusion, may just appear in the game, and if they do, those bets will become active.
The official source for reading about player injuries is on NBA.com. The injury report page provides PDFs on the player statuses for any upcoming games, and you can quickly find out which players have suspect injuries that may flare up during the game.
ESPN and CBS Sports are also good sources to stay up to date with all the latest NBA player injuries. It is also useful to read up about the injuries and find out whether those players have participated in any recent games. Previous game statistics can give you an idea of what shape they’re in, but nothing beats watching some highlights. After all, you may just spot signs that don’t appear on the stats, such as them tiring out faster or if the injury has also affected their confidence levels.
Best Sportsbooks for Betting Against Injured NBA Players
Having an account at a top NBA betting site is a must if you are going to make use of this strategy. The volume of NBA player props varies greatly depending on which sportsbook you are signed up to, and you need a lot if you are going to make the most of any player injuries. You shouldn’t be limited to Under Points markets, but will also need markets relating to Rebounds, Assists, and Threes – the maximum coverage to gain the upper hand.
Our experts recommend DraftKings and FanDuel for their excellent array of NBA player bets. Out of the two, DraftKings has a slightly larger catalog of NBA player props, through its H2H betting markets including H2H spread bets, but at FanDuel you can make use of the excellent Player Prop Combos and parlay bets to diversify your predictions.
We also recommend Caesars, bet365 and BetMGM to anyone who wishes to bet against injured NBA players, each of the platforms has its own strengths and key features, which you can find out more about in our designated reviews.
