You don’t need to be an expert to use NFL betting strategies. The betting strategies we have compiled here are quite easy to understand and follow. You don’t need massive Excel spreadsheets, a big bankroll, or to spend hours calculating probabilities, odds and evaluate ROI on your wagers. Or we should say, you are not forced to, but if you want to become a number-crunching odds guru, we also cover that here.
All NFL fans who bet on football can benefit from applying a strategy, no matter how convoluted or straightforward and simple. The BettingTools team has assessed many different betting tactics and plans, and we have put in the time to bring you step-by-step guides so you can fully understand these strategies and try them out straight away.
Football Betting Strategy Directory
Our NFL betting strategy guides are just the starting point for any of you would-be NFL betting tacticians. They are easy to follow, and intended for bettors of all levels, from veterans to NFL betting beginners. They are simply guidelines that give you an insight into some of the sharpest and most well-refined strategies that professional bettors use to gain an edge over sportsbooks.
We fully encourage you to not just read through these top football betting guides, but to make them your own, experimenting with different types of bets, betting systems, and learn how to keep an eye out for a good deal.
Know the Betting Language and Expand Your Betting Market Knowledge
Learning betting terms and what they relate to is crucial to understanding how professional bettors talk and what types of wagers they look for. We have a plethora of guides relating to betting terms, giving you a complete understanding of how different bets and strategies work.
It may feel like a step backward for any of you veteran bettors, but we aren’t just covering the basic moneyline, betting against the spread, totals wagers, and so on. You can find useful information about trap games, how sportsbooks shade betting lines, and an easy summary of how to calculate sportsbook juice in under 5 minutes.
Spotting Good Betting Value
A lot of bettors open a betting site, already knowing which bets they want to place. Head to NFL, and begin ticking the bets that you think will land, once you are done, combine them into a parlay and set your stake. But take a big step back. Casting a critical eye on the wagers and the odds given, you may find that some of those wagers are quite poorly priced.
This may prompt bettors to pick alternative spreads or lines, or settle for bets that they wouldn’t otherwise place, but that is playing into the sportsbook’s game. The odds for the risk must be worth it, and if they aren’t, then you should consider expanding your options and looking for other types of bets or simply avoiding that particular NFL game.
But what if we told you, the odds also depend on factors such as: how odds change during the week, how popular that specific bet is, or that maybe that the Vegas oddsmakers have got it really wrong. Any one of these scenarios can happen, therefore, you should be one step ahead and learn how betting value works.
Bet with Your Head Instead of Your Heart
I get it, football is an emotive sport and it is always tempting to pull for your team, even if it defies logic. It might sound like an obvious thing, but overcoming that emotion is an issue for a lot of gamblers. It might not even be a team we love, some people may want to bet against a team they really hate. However, you must put these preferences aside.
If you become objective when betting on the NFL online it will lead you to making smarter bets. There is no need for any really deep analysis looking into mathematics and stats, is is really just common sense. Make sure you know how to read betting lines and don’t let your favouritism play any part.
It is fun watching your team play, even more fun when they win, but seeing them lose and losing money in the process is not fun. To set yourself up for long term profits and gain an edge on bookmakers, you must realize any biases you have and don’t let them play a role in your decision making. For example, don’t bet on the Raiders to beat the Chiefs purely because you are a Raiders fan, you must account for form, quality difference and recent records like any smart bettor would.
Using Advanced Betting Systems and Parlay Combinations
NFL parlay betting is extremely popular, and for good reason. It can yield mighty returns, and all that you need is to combine 4 or 5 picks and hope that they all come through. But parlay betting carries a huge amount of risk, and even if you are just betting on favorites, the chances are that 1 of those 4 or 5 games will be won by the underdog.
You are by no means limited to simple multiple-leg wagers at the top US NFL parlay betting platforms. There are masses of parlay combinations, betting systems and alternative NFL parlay bets that you can use to mix up your betting. If the parlay betting is not working, perhaps you can opt for a round robin parlay instead, covering your wager in case 1 of your selections ends in an upset. You can also consider NFL teaser wagers, upping the ante on a single NFL game with a well constructed SGP bet (same game parlay), or build several parlays to cast your net as wide as possible.
There are now many apps like linemate and other prediction apps and software that you can use to make picks on the big game. We wouldn’t always recommend following every tip and pick on these apps, but they are good to give you an insight into the data and can help you identify trending plays.
Hedging Bets for Guaranteed Profit
This practice comes with a different kind of risk. Hedging bets can ensure profits regardless of how the football game pans out, but sportsbooks generally do not allow bettors to hedge their bets. There are hedging strategies that are not technically illegal, such as Dutching. But then if you take advantage of the discrepancies in the prices at different sportsbooks and place arbitrage bets, you can land in trouble. Matched betting, which is the same concept, but involves you hedging a bet against an NFL bonus wager, is not really accepted either.
These NFL betting strategies are not really advisable, as sportsbooks can close or suspend your account if they suspect you are hedge betting. Even if you don’t plan on making hedge or arbitrage bets, it is useful to know how they work and how sportsbooks identify potential arbitrage bettors.
Long Term Profits Through Progressive Betting Systems
Where abritrage betting is generally shunned by sportsbooks, they have no problems with bettors using progressive betting systems. Progressive wagering is when you change your stake after each wager, depending on whether you won or lost. They are basically to ensure a long term profit, but there are some dangers with progressive betting.
The Martingale Betting System is the most famous progressive betting system. If a Martingale bettor loses a bet, they will double their stake for the next wager. They keep doubling up after every loss, and when a bet finally wins, the bettor should be in a profit. It doesn’t work that simply for NFL betting, but you can find out more about that in our Martingale betting strategy guide.
There are positive and negative betting progressive strategies, and each has its own purpose. If you have some betting experience, or have read some betting forums, you may be familiar with some of the following strategies:
Go Beyond Pregame NFL Betting
Pregame wagers account for most of the sales at sportsbooks, but you don’t have to stick to placing these types of bets. Especially if you have a Sunday Ticket or a NFL RedZone pass, and are planning to watch the game. Live NFL bets, or in-play wagers, are available throughout the duration of a game, and you can place bets any time you like.
The odds will fluctuate throughout the game to reflect what is happening on the field, but if you have a keen eye for spotting early signs of how the game will end, you can use it to your advantage.
But even if you don’t want to place any live bets, you should still have quick access to your sports betting account during a game. This is because a lot of pregame wagers also have cash out options, meaning you will be able to lock in a fixed payout during the game – on in other words – sell your bet back to the sportsbook.
To get the most out of cash out offers and live betting markets, it’s highly worth signing up to a platform that has a designated NFL mobile betting app, so you can jump into your betting account within seconds.
Apply Bet Calculating Tools for Odds and Stake Evaluation
This wraps up some of our points above, and is a crucial one for bettors of all level and budgets. You can go as technical about it as you like, but basic principle is to use a bet calculator and tools to assess betting odds. You are calculating how likely they are to hit, what the juice is on the wager, and then how much you should stake on it. If you are placing a parlay, you can use our parlay calculator to easily see how much your bet will return should it come in. The Kelly Criterion strategy is quite an easy strategy to use, and it takes all this data into account. NFL betting strategies can also relate to how much you spend, and how you allocate your bankroll to different wagers.
It can be quite time consuming at first, but Kelly Criterion betting can reduce the money you spend on risky bets and show you how to get the maximum out of your bankroll. Knowing how probability and fixed odds wagers work is paramount, and even if you are not going to use the Kelly Criterion, you should know how to read odds and determine the Implied Probability given by the sportsbooks. It is also extremely easy. Just enter the odds into our odds calculator to get the Implied Probability on any wager.
Check the Injury Reports
Football is a team game, but sometimes even the strongest teams can’t overcome a long list of injuries. You only have to look at the 2024 Detroit Lions, who were so strong during the season, suffer huge injuries which eventually cost them in the Divisional Round.
Teams will release a status report on a Wednesday so make sure you read it and keep track of which players missed practice and if they are trending towards playing at the weekend or are doubtful. I would also suggest following some NFL insiders on social media for up to the date information. On a Sunday morning, they typically update us on who is expected to play and who will miss out.
Following Tipsters for Extra Inspiration
Even the most skilled and adept NFL bettors get stuck once in a while. When you are feeling a bit indecisive, you can always look for a good NFL tipster to show you in the right direction. There are masses of NFL handicappers and tipsters, and while you don’t need to follow each one of their predictions, it can help to listen to an experienced bettor.
We have our own in-house NFL betting expert here at BettingTools, who delivers his NFL picks every week. Paul uses betting tools to gain an edge over competitors, as he is not only trying to predict what will happen, but where you get the best bang for your buck. His weekly NFL parlay picks are concise and filled with both on-field and off-field information that can influence the outcome of each NFL game.
Sign Up at a Good Sportsbook
This is where it all begins. You will struggle to find good odds or betting markets, unless you are playing at a well-established US sportsbook. Big brands, such as DraftKings or FanDuel, bring you the biggest variety of NFL props and player bets, so you can diversify and personalise your NFL betting parlays.
Also, the best NFL betting sites will provide you with expert betting features and advanced tools so that you can place all sorts of system bets and parlay combinations. Bonuses are also bigger at these sites, as they can afford to splash out the big bucks on their members. Just check out the sportsbooks below to find out what they entail.
