Progressive betting systems are hugely popular in casino gaming, but they can also be applied to your sports bets. Though there are plenty of risks associated with these systems, and we have to state that they are not guaranteed moneymakers. There are plenty of different types of progressive betting tactics that you can use, and on this page, we will run through the most notable ones.
In terms of legality, you are fully within your rights to use progressive betting systems and sportsbooks also encourage bettors to adopt them. You can take it as a red flag, or see it as a green light to go ahead, but it is vitally important to understand the theory of how these systems work and how you can use them.
Explaining How Progressive Betting Systems Work
The basic principle of progressive betting systems is that the money you stake changes after each bet. After a settled bet, depending on whether you win or lose, your stake for the next bet will either increase or decrease. From my experience, the Martingale system seems to be the most popular and widespread in sports betting circles and across forums. It is a perfect example as it is one of the simplest progressive betting systems you will come across. So I will use it as an example to show you how progressive systems work.
Exploring the Martingale Progressive Betting System
Like most betting systems, the Martingale was originally used for casino gaming. The idea is that you double up after every loss, and always bet on a +100 (1/1 or 2.0 odds) bet. Say you sit down to a game of Roulette, and bet on Red. I’ve drafted up a table with a 10 sequence Martingale progressive betting system. This shows that if you continuously lose your next 10 bets, how much you will need to stake to keep going. On the right hand side, I have shown the potential winnings and your profit in case you should win anywhere between the first and tenth bet.
| Round | Stake | Returns if Next Bet Wins | Profit if Next Bet Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $10 | $20 | +$10 ($20 - $10) |
| 2 | $20 | $40 | +$10 ($40 - $20 - $10) |
| 3 | $40 | $80 | +$10 ($80 - $40 - $20 - $10) |
| 4 | $80 | $160 | +$10 ($160 - $80 - $40 - $20 - $10) |
| 5 | $160 | $320 | +$10 ($320 - $160 - $80 - $40 - $20 - $10) |
| 6 | $320 | $640 | +$10 ($640 - $320 - $160 - $80 - $40 - $20 - $10) |
| 7 | $640 | $1,280 | +$10 ($1,280 - $640 - $320 - $160 - $80 - $40 - $20 - $10) |
| 8 | $1,280 | $2,560 | +$10 ($2,560 - $1,280 - $640 - $320 - $160 - $80 - $40 - $20 - $10) |
| 9 | $2,560 | $5,120 | +$10 ($5,120 - $2,560 - $1,280 - $640 - $320 - $160 - $80 - $40 - $20 - $10) |
| 10 | $5,120 | $10,240 | +$10 ($10,240 - $5,120 - $2,560 - $1,280 - $640 - $320 - $160 - $80 - $40 - $20 - $10) |
Notice how at when you have lost 8 times in a row, you need to break out over $1,000 in your next bet, and 2 more losses require over $5,000. The stakes increase tremendously thereafter, hitting over $10k at your 11th loss, and then if you hit
15 losses in a row, you will need over $160k to keep going.
Now in a game of roulette, it is unthinkable to keep losing if you keep betting on red (or black for that matter). It is the same as having a coin flip land on heads for 10 flips in a row. You’d think the coin was loaded, or that the roulette table had magnets or anything else to deliberately lose.
But sports betting is entirely different. You don’t really have many games that are evenly matched, and even if they are, a sportsbook will not give you +100 on either team to win the game.
How Odds in Sports Betting Work
In sports, you rarely get a 50-50 evenly matched game, and while there are spread bets that level the perceived difference between two teams, you won’t get even money on either bet. Sportsbooks need to make their cut, and therefore they add some juice to ensure that they make money. It makes sense that they will take a small cut, as they don’t charge you to sign up, and you don’t need to pay fees when depositing or withdrawing at any of the top US betting sites.
In a game between the LA Lakers and the San Antonio Spurs, let’s say there is a spread of 5.5 that draws the teams evenly. The Lakers may be the favorites to win, but with the spread (-5.5 to Lakers or +5.5 to Spurs), the sportsbook has given both an even chance of winning.
The odds on either team will not be +100 but -110 (at a good sportsbook), so you will not get even money if you win. Instead, you will get a profit of $9.09 on every $10 wagered. Let’s see how that affects the Martingale strategy above:
| Round | Stake | Returns if Next Bet Wins | Profit if Next Bet Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $10 | $19.09 | +$9.09 |
| 2 | $20 | $36.36 | +$6.36 |
| 3 | $40 | $72.73 | +$2.73 |
| 4 | $80 | $145.45 | -$4.55 |
And stop there. At the fourth bet, where you have to put $80, if you won your bet you would already be at a minus. Because of the juice, the simple doubling up on a loss is simply not enough for you to continuously hit the +$10 wins. No, instead you will need to increase your wager by 110% instead of 100% after every loss.
| Round | Stake | Returns if Next Bet Wins | Profit if Next Bet Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $10 | $21 | +$10 |
| 2 | $23.10 | $44.10 | +$10 |
| 3 | $48.51 | $92.61 | +$10 |
| 4 | $101.87 | $194.48 | +$10 |
| 5 | $213.93 | $408.41 | +$10 |
At the fifth loss, at even money, you would have only needed $160 instead of $213.93, and the stakes increase tremendously if we add a few more losses. Loss number 7 would require a stake of nearly $1,981.20 to go on, whereas on even money it was only $1,280. Scarily, juice is not the main reason why progressive betting systems are not really advisable for sports betting.
Why Progressive Betting Systems are Dangerous for Sports Betting
In casino games, the probability always remains the same for each round, and the odds do not change. I can bet on Red for 5 rounds in a row, and the chance of hitting black or red is always 50-50, with even money to win. But in sports, the odds change depending on many factors, and the likelihood of a team winning will also change.
You can read all sorts of stats, draft up different scenarios for the game, and consider factors such as weather, referees/umpires, player injuries, and any events that can change the lineups or player morale – but there is no way of knowing how the game will pan out.
Then, there are the practicalities to consider. You need to have quite a big budget to play progressive betting systems. Even if you start with the smallest stakes, most systems demand a large bankroll, especially if you continuously lose. While sportsbooks generally don’t have a problem with progressive betting systems, they may have limits in place, so you cannot keep playing until you win – even if you have a colossal amount of money at your disposal.
I really wouldn’t encourage any bettor to use progressive betting systems. They are very simple to understand, and I can understand the appeal of jumping straight in. But it’s much harder to climb out of these systems and accept your losses after you have been stocking up for the win. These systems shouldn’t be completely avoided, but they are just not fault proof, and if you get carried away, they can lead to heavy losses.
Popular Progressive Betting Systems
We have looked a lot at the Martingale system, and while it is the most popular, it is by no means the only well-structured betting system out there. The simplest distinction between progressive betting systems is to define whether they have positive or negative progressions.
Positive/Negative Betting Progressions
By positive/negative, here we mean whether you have to increase or decrease the stake on your next wager. With Martingale, you don’t need to increase your stake on a win but need to increase it on a loss. The Masaniello Betting Strategy requires you to increase your bet after a win, and to decrease it after a loss. This is to capitalize on winning streaks and cutting losses when you are losing. D’Alembert, which is extremely popular in advanced betting circles, requires you to create betting units, and to increase stakes after a loss, reducing stakes after wins.
Balanced Progressive Systems
Beyond D’Alembert, there is the Fibonacci Betting System, where you must change your stake in increments based on the Fibonacci sequence. The Fibonacci is quite easy to pick up, but for a similar, yet more complex, strategy, there is also the Labouchere betting system. Each progressive betting system has its own strengths and weaknesses. For example, the Masaniello, Paroli, and D’Alembert are more balanced systems, that try to negate losses in addition to making money on wins.
Aggressive/Big Moneymaking Progressive Systems
Martingale, the Reverse Martingale, and 1-3-2-6 progressive betting systems are positive progressions that aim to build big money, without any concern for losing. The more you lose, the harder you go in on your next bet, and at the end your big win should cover your losses. Or, in case of the Reverse Martingale, you are only going to keep going bigger after winning, until you decide to call it a rest or you lose all the money you won in your prior bets.
Check out our progressive betting systems pages below for explanations on how to use the systems I have listed above.
- Martingale (and Reverse Martingale)
- Labouchere
- 1-3-2-6
- Masaniello
- Fibonacci
- D’Alembert
- Paroli
- Oscar’s Grind
- Holy Grail
Top Sportsbooks to Use Progressive Betting Systems
All sportsbooks allow these strategies and tactics, but you need to think smart before just picking any betting site. For any of the systems I mentioned above, you need a sportsbook that has low minimum deposits or minimum betting stakes, and should have fair betting lines and odds (-110 for 50:50 wagers is the best you can get out there).
I would also highlight the importance of alternative betting lines, player props, and using various game props in your wagers. For example, placing Anytime Scorer wagers on Erling Haaland to score in every EPL weekend soccer game. All bets have their own variance, so you may as well look for bets with a good shot of winning that come at worthy odds. You cannot bet on Red every time as you can in Roulette, so you may as well spread your net and try to add bets that come at good value. At the sportsbooks listed above, you will find no shortage of such options.
How to Use Progressive Betting Strategies for Your Betting
Odds and variance are quite damaging to progressive betting systems, as it makes it practically impossible to find even money bets week in week out. Forget the fact that some of these systems require big bankrolls, it is a struggle to find such bets, unless you accept the odds on spread bets, or simply take whatever odds the sportsbooks offer on a single team to win every week.
Patience and accepting losses are more important here than simple straight betting. It is easier to get carried away with progressions and pushing for the win with bigger stakes and more aggressive betting. While having systems is not bad, you must accept the fact that losses are just as much a part of betting as winning.
