Following on from my last blog post titled “what do pro punters/sharp bet on?” it has been pointed out that the statistic of 2.4 goals scored on average in the Premier League is incorrect. The stat was found in a resources article on the website from bookie Pinnacle and it’s not the only stat that appears to be incorrect in it.
Cassini has since calculated the actual averages per season and I have checked them against my own databases and they tally. I can now confirm that the actual goals per game average overall since 1993/94 in the Premier League is 2.65 goals. As you can see below, the averages have been increasing and this doesn’t help explain why I have been seeing so many matches that are odds on for the under 2.5 golas and that are odds against for over 2.5 goals.
Goals predictions has become one of the most popular betting markets in football with many using them in conjunction with football accumulators to boost potential returns. Looking for the best odds and finding two high scoring teams is all part of the fun. Here we explain all of the key information you need to know around over 2.5 goals bets.
| Season | Avg. goals per game |
|---|---|
| 2023/24 | 3.28 |
| 2022/23 | 2.85 |
| 2021/22 | 2.82 |
| 2020/21 | 2.69 |
| 2019/20 | 2.72 |
| 2018/19 | 2.82 |
| 2017/18 | 2.67 |
| 2016/17 | 2.80 |
| 2015/16 | 2.70 |
| 2014/15 | 2.56 |
| 2013/14 | 2.76 |
| 2012/13 | 2.79 |
| 2011/12 | 2.80 |
| 2010/11 | 2.79 |
| 2009/10 | 2.77 |
| 2008/09 | 2.47 |
| 2007/08 | 2.63 |
| 2006/07 | 2.45 |
| 2005/06 | 2.48 |
| 2004/05 | 2.56 |
| 2003/04 | 2.66 |
| 2002/03 | 2.63 |
| 2001/02 | 2.63 |
| 2000/01 | 2.61 |
| 1999/00 | 2.78 |
| 1998/99 | 2.52 |
| 1997/98 | 2.68 |
| 1996/97 | 2.55 |
| 1995/96 | 2.60 |
| 1994/95 | 2.58 |
| 1993/94 | 2.58 |
| 1992/93 | 2.64 |
| Overall Average | 2.68 |
As the saying goes, it only takes a few seconds to score a goal and making football predictions on your favourite teams and how many goals they will score is fun. It is difficult to do this correctly consistently on any bets you make, but it is one of the over/under for goals on football matches is one of the most popular markets bookies provide.
With that said, it is important to understand what is meant by 2.5 goals. You could also choose to search for a certain date and leagues to see goal averages from a team you might want to bet on to make a more informed decision. Pair this with a good, well-researched football betting strategy and you could be on to a winner.
What is over/under 2.5 goals in betting?
You may have noticed colleagues or friends mention in excitement that they have got Arsenal over 2.5 goals in the game tonight and nod along whilst secretly not sure of what they are talking about. The concept of 2.5 goals in betting is simple. If you bet on a match to have over 2.5 goals there must be a minimum of three goals scored in total between the teams in that game for your wager to win. If you bet on under 2.5 goals there must be zero, one or two goals total between the teams for that to be a winner.
You now might be wondering why it is 2.5 goals is the number? Bookies offer odds on over or under 2.5 goals because the final total must be over or under that figure, and there cannot be 0.5 goals in a game. Consequently, an over/under 2.5 goals bet is a two-way bet. There can only be two outcomes with this type of bet, unlike if you were betting on the result, which could be a home win, away win or draw.
How many goals is over 2.5?
Of course, you can’t actually have 0.5 goals in a game of football. So a bet predicting that there will be over 2.5 goals in a game is you predicting that there will be a minimum of 3 goals which could include scorelines such as 3-0, 2-1, 3-1 etc.
How to predict over 2.5 goals in a match
There is no special trick to winning money on these types of bets. No unique website or quirky algorithm, just your own knowledge. However, there are some tips that can help you along the way.
- Consider the likelihood of both teams scoring in a game. It is much more likely for a game to have over 2.5 goals if both teams score, otherwise you are relying on one team winning by a large margin. So consider betting on high-scoring teams, look at the previous matches of the two teams and see if they have been involved in many high-scoring games. You don’t want to go near teams that are known for their defensive prowess unless they have a great attack and are playing a much weaker opponent.
- Keep up to date with form and timings; how important is the game to both sides? If it is at the end of the season, one team might be going for a title, promotion or a European place, while the other doesn’t have anything to play for except pride. This could affect the scoreline. The big teams also are usually better in home matches, so look out for likes of Liverpool playing at home against a newly promoted side as they are likely to get three or more goals.
- Injuries and suspensions on both teams. If Man City are playing and De Bruyne and Haaland are out, does that change things? You should always look at the lineups closely for any match.
This all comes down to your knowledge base. In any betting strategy, having sufficient knowledge is crucial, and 2.5 goals betting is no different. You could even use some free bets if you are confident in your knowledge.
Past Season Stats
Of course, just looking at the average goals isn’t the full story as some matches will have 4, 5 or even more goals for example. They push the average up but will still only count as one match that finished over 2.5 goals. So I decided to get the stats for how many matches finish above 2.5 goals which again you can see below. The overall % of matches that finish above 2.5 goals is 49% and this does make a little more sense but again it looks like this percentage has been increasing over the last few seasons. Is this because pitches are bigger, surfaces are better or balls lighter? Who knows, but these football stats certainly look like more of a trend than opposed to being just variance.
Indeed Cassini revealed that blindly backing the overs since the beginning of the 2015/16 season would have produced a yield of 5%. Narrow the criteria down to only matches where the odds are between 2.00 and 2.5 and the ROI is 8.5%. So much for the value being on the unders and there being a bias towards over 2.5 goals. Will there now be an overreaction to these findings? Perhaps we’ll soon see the markets correct themselves or even over-compensate with value now actually being on the unders!
At the risk of stating the obvious, if there’s one thing that is clear from all this, it’s that whether it’s the unders or overs that you are looking to back, you need to be finding odds of over 2.00 to show a profit long-term.
Number of English Premier League Matches that finish with over 2.5 goals
| Season | Total Matches | Num. over 2.5 | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020/21 | 380 | 190 | 50% |
| 2019/20 | 380 | 198 | 52% |
| 2018/19 | 380 | 204 | 54% |
| 2017/18 | 380 | 194 | 51% |
| 2016/17 | 250 | 206 | 54% |
| 2015/16 | 380 | 201 | 53% |
| 2014/15 | 380 | 184 | 48% |
| 2013/14 | 380 | 196 | 52% |
| 2012/13 | 380 | 212 | 56% |
| 2011/12 | 380 | 204 | 54% |
| 2010/11 | 380 | 206 | 54% |
| 2009/10 | 380 | 200 | 53% |
| 2008/09 | 380 | 182 | 48% |
| 2007/08 | 380 | 171 | 45% |
| 2006/07 | 380 | 178 | 47% |
| 2005/06 | 380 | 171 | 45% |
| 2004/05 | 380 | 172 | 45% |
| 2003/04 | 380 | 191 | 50% |
| 2002/03 | 380 | 186 | 49% |
| 2001/02 | 380 | 180 | 47% |
| 2000/01 | 380 | 185 | 49% |
| 1999/00 | 380 | 193 | 51% |
| 1998/99 | 380 | 182 | 48% |
| 1997/98 | 380 | 185 | 49% |
| 1996/97 | 380 | 173 | 46% |
| 1995/96 | 380 | 174 | 46% |
| 1994/95 | 462 | 221 | 48% |
| 1993/94 | 462 | 216 | 47% |
| 1992/93 | 462 | 216 | 47% |
| Average | 49% | ||
Let’s see what the 2024/25 season brings in terms of goals!
Advantages of betting on over 2.5 goals
You have done your research, you have looked at the recent matches of the home team and the away team but one game lets your accumulator down. This can be really frustrating and is one of the big advantages of goal betting. Once three goals have been scored you know that no matter what happens, if there is a red card or an injury or even if a team comes back from 3-0 down to draw, you can sit back and relax. It also means that your bet is alive until the final minutes in a lot of cases, which makes it more exciting.
The reason the over 2.5 goals odds are appealing over other goal markets such as 1.5 goals is you can get a good sizeable payout. The money is certainly in the 2.5 goals market for sure.
The biggest benefit of over 2.5 goals tips is the potential to turn a small stake into a large profit in just 90 minutes of football. If you add more matches to your accumulator, those returns can end up in hundreds of pounds. This makes the bet enticing and exciting.
