Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was crowned the MVP of the 2024-25 regular season. This year’s MVP was exciting, controversial and went down to the wire as the last award of the season to be announced. Heading into the Western Conference Semi-Finals (OKC vs Nuggets), it was unclear who would prevail as the MVP between Jokic and Shai.
So what made the difference? We take a look at a few factors that likely went into the decision to crown SGA as the MVP and what to expect with the award going forward.
What does “Most Valuable” Really Mean?
This year was essentially a two-man race from the get go, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic putting up big numbers, but having very different responsibilities for their teams – despite being the #1 on both sides. Shai helped to carry the OKC to the top of the Western Conference. When Shai is on the court, the Thunder sit at a +16.4 net rating (point differential). With Shai on the bench, the Thunder drop to a rating of +10.5. Clearly this is a massive drop, but at +10.5 the Thunder are still a top team in the league.
When Jokic is on the court, the Nuggets have a rating of +9.3. This doesn’t even exceed the Thunder’s rating when Shai isn’t playing. However, without Jokic, the Nuggets drop to a rating of -10.3. This puts them at the second worst in the NBA league, just above the Washington Wizards.
The debate of “Most Valuable” essentially had 2 philosophies this season. Are you more valuable for taking your team from “Good to Great” (Shai) or for taking your team from “Worst to Good” (Jokic)?
The Western Conference Semi-Finals
Usually, the MVP award is announced towards the end of the first round of the Playoffs. This year, that was a little different. With a high likelihood that OKC and Nuggets would play against each other in the Conference Semi-Finals, it seemed the NBA was waiting for this moment to make a decision. OKC, as expected, dominated the Nuggets and beat them in just 5 games. From this moment, it seemed unlikely that Jokic would get the MVP, even though the award is purely based on regular season performance.
We have never seen a more divisive MVP Award and using the Playoffs to dictate the winner is wrong. However, in this circumstance, it made for a great narrative and clarity on which team is actually better. Some fans are speculating whether the NBA knew this would happen. OKC is the better team and the Nuggets were never going to stand a chance in a 7 game series. Perhaps they needed this Semi-Finals to prove to fans that a new “Face of the League” had arrived.
Face of the League
With big names like LeBron, Kevin Durant and Steph Curry on the way out. The NBA is looking for a new face of the league (both in a colloquial and corporate sense). Jokic unfortunately isn’t particularly “brand aware”. Known for his love of horse racing, gambling and drinking – he isn’t the right fit for Adam Silver and the NBA even after winning 3 of the last 4 MVP awards (prior to 2025).
But here comes SGA!
A well spoken, athletic, skilled, team-player… and he isn’t European (which is a bonus). This was a great opportunity for the league to start publicising the next generation and find a new big name for Basketball. Unfortunately for Shai, there are a few other players who have something to say. The last 4 teams in the Playoffs all have something in common; a Point Guard as their star player, under the age of 28, and none of the teams have won a Championship in the modern era. Wherever you look, there’s a big name who has the potential to become the Face of the League.
What to Expect Next Year
We’ll never be able to predict who will win the MVP award in 2026, however, due to voter fatigue, recency bias and a few other factors we can make some good predictions. Here’s our Top 5 players to win the MVP in 2026:
- Luka Doncic
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
- Victor Wembanyama
- Nikola Jokic
- Jayson Tatum
Who do you think will be the next MVP?
Betting on the NBA MVP Awards for 2025-26
With the NBA Playoffs in top gear, we are heading to what could be a historic and memorable NBA Finals, and it is not too late to get in your 2025 NBA Championship outright wagers. As soon as this season passes its climactic end, we are expecting the top US sportsbooks to release their early bird odds for next year’s MVP awards, and the value should be good and high so early on.
By the time the next season begins, the markets will converge, and then they will fluctuate drastically through the season, and with each week, there will be both missed opportunties and new ones to take advantage of. Though with a whole summer to plan your predictions, and plenty of excellent sports betting software to build AI-powered projections, this summer is the best time to get in your NBA MVP awards nice and early.
For the best value, you are probably going to juggle some of the following sportsbooks with your pick. And another little tip for any of you early bird bettors is to follow us on X (Twitter) @BettingToolsus for any hot promotions or betting bonuses, so you can get even better value on your futures bets.
