Handicaps are wagers that level out the on paper difference between two teams, giving each side a 50-50 chance of winning. Oddsmakers can do this by applying a betting line, which either gives the stronger team a slight disadvantage or the weaker team a boost. Also called spreads or spread betting, this form of betting is hugely popular in the US, and there are lots of tipsters out there who aim to find the best betting lines to make a profit.
Moneylines are straight bets on the outcome of a game, and the oddsmakers supply you with odds on both possible outcomes (or three outcomes in some sports). If you don’t like the odds given on a team, or betting on the other team is simply too risky, then you can head over to the handicaps markets to look for better deals, and find the perfect balance of odds for risk.
How Handicap Bets Work
Handicaps are bets on the outcome of a game, but they use a point deficit or point boost to change the odds. Generally, when you bet on the stronger team then they will receive a deficit of points. So for example, if the betting line is 1.5, then the favorite will be assigned a spread (or handicap) or -1.5. To win your bet, the favorites must win the game by 2 or more points. However, if you place a handicap wager on the underdog, they will be assigned a boost of +1.5 points.
The line is always added at the end of the game, and if the underdog has won the game with the additional points, then you have won your bet. The only way you can lose on the underdog is if they lose by a margin greater than the line, meaning the favorite has beaten them by 2 or more points.
Official Line Handicap Theory
When you open your sportsbook and check out the odds on the upcoming NFL games, for example, then you will be presented with all the moneylines, total points bets, and spreads (or handicaps). The handicaps can range from 1.5 and go up to 8.5 or even higher, in some cases. These official lines are the exact perceived difference between the two teams, which should, in theory, equally balance out the two teams.
Let’s take two examples.
The buttons on the left hand side are the handicap bets, the middle are the moneylines, and on the right we have the totals bets. In the first game, between the Colts and the Titans, is quite a tight affair. The moneyline odds on the Colts is -118, but the Titans are not far behind them, at +100. The handicap is 1.5, and the odds on either team are pretty close. Bet $10 on the Colts with a -1.5 handicap, and you can win $19.52. Should you pick the Titans instead, you can win $18.70 with a +1.5 handicap.
The Pats host the Texans in the other game, and the moneyline odds on the Pats are extremely high, at +270. The Texans, who are the strong favorites to win here, are priced at -335, and the handicap for this game is set at 7. That means, if you bet on the Pats to win, they will be given a full +7 points, whereas a bet on the Texans come with a point deficit of -7. But more importantly, the odds on either are -110, which comes to $19.09 on a $10 bet.
In both cases, the line has brought the teams almost perfectly level, with odds around the -110 mark. This is the official spread, or betting line.
Alternative Handicaps and Lines
The official handicap is a great option to level out the playing field, and occasionally, Paul will pick out spreads in his weekly NFL betting picks, but you are not restricted to the official line. Most quality sportsbooks also give you alternative handicap lines or spreads. There, you will find a great range of betting lines, each priced according to the risk level of the wager.
In the above example, the NY Jets will host the Buffalo Bills, and the official handicap is 2.5. The Bills are favored to win, with a spread of -2.5. Simply scroll up and down the slider to pick another betting line, and you will find the prices for each of the other lines. We have a picture of some of the options below.
These are one of the most useful betting tools in your arsenal. Let’s say you think the Bills can win this one by a full touchdown, or 6 points. Right there on the top of the list, there is the Bills to win with a handicap of -5.5, at +152. If you betting prediction comes through, then you can win $25.20 off a $10 bet, whereas the official handicap would have given you just $19.09 on a ten dollar bet.
Even if you just pick a line of -3.5 on the Bills, just one higher, then you could make $22.10, a good $3.01 more than the official handicap. This amount of money can easily become $10 or higher if you had won 3 or 4 alternate handicap wagers, and it gets even more exciting when we look at what it does in your parlay.
Alternate Handicap Bets in Parlays
As handicap bets are priced at exactly -110, or just a little higher or lower, the odds in a parlay are pretty much predictable. Below, we are assuming all the odds are -110. There may be cases where the odds are not exactly that amount, but for the most part, the value of your parlay will not be much longer or shorter than the following.
- 2-Selection Handicap Parlay @ +264
- 3-Selection Handicap Parlay @ +595
- 4-Selection Handicap Parlay @ +1,228
- 5-Selection Handicap Parlay @ +2,435
- 6-Selection Handicap Parlay @ +4,741
So if you are placing a 6-selection parlay with 6 official point spreads, you could be looking at a potential return of $484.12 on a $10 bet. But if we were to up the ante a little, and add an extra point onto all those handicaps, we can assume the odds will lengthen, from -110 to +121 (like in the case of the Bills).
- 2-Selection Handicap Parlay @ +388
- 3-Selection Handicap Parlay @ +979
- 4-Selection Handicap Parlay @ +2,285
- 5-Selection Handicap Parlay @ +5,171
- 6-Selection Handicap Parlay @ +11,550
In the case of the 5 selection wagers, we can knock off a whole spread and get almost the same return. Just look at the 6-selection parlay using official lines, which comes at +4741, and the 5-selection parlay with an additional point added to the line – you will make more money if the 5-selection parlay wins. Of course, the 5-selection parlay comes with higher risk, because on paper, the spread is -1 point off the balanced level.
Your spread bets will not win every time, but having that option to shift the line can give you that extra edge over the house.
Pushed Handicap Bets
In sports such as soccer, where games can end in a tie, there is a possibility for a handicap bet to end in a tie. When the line is a full number, such as 1, 2, 3 and so on, then there is a chance that the game can end in a draw. Say you pick Liverpool to beat Everton with a handicap of -1, and they beat Everton 2-1. The adjusted result is 2-2, meaning the game has ended in a draw. Your bet does not win, but it has not lost either. Instead, it is “pushed”, so you will receive your money back.
If the line was -1.5, then your bet is lost. Let’s up the ante, and say that Liverpool won 3-1. If your line was -1.5 then you would win, but a -2 spread would be pushed. This is a neat little trick as you can squeeze out more money, and if the game ends in a draw then your bet is refunded.
It is even more effective in parlay betting. This is because pushed bets are made void, and simply removed from your parlay. If all your other selections won but 1 was pushed, then your parlay will still win, but the odds of that bet will be removed from the wager, and you will get your returns based on the new odds.
Mastering Handicap Betting
The key of handicap betting is flexibility. You can adjust the handicap to your liking, and this will change your approach to betting. Our experts are constantly reviewing betting lines and using alternative handicaps to gain an edge. For example, you can pick riskier lines, and compensate by having fewer selections in your parlay. Or, you can opt for less risky lines, making it easier for your picks to win, but then you may have to add more to get those lengthy parlay odds. Looking to work out the odds quickly? Use our parlay bet calculator to do it for you in a matter of seconds.
The official lines define the 50-50 margin, but the oddsmakers are also making their own assumptions and predictions. For example, let’s say that the Kansas City Chiefs will host the Cleveland Browns next Thursday. The Chiefs have won their last 4 games, and they were the favorite in all of them. In each, they were given spreads of -1.5 up to -3.5 and the Chiefs beat the spread in 3 of the 4 victories. The Browns, on the other hand, have only won 1 in their past 4 games, and didn’t manage to beat the spread (or win with the spread where they were the underdogs).
The Chiefs are the heavy favorites to win here, and given that they have beaten the spread so comfortably in their recent games, the oddsmakers are going to jump in on the hype and assign a high line of 5.5. The official line gives the Browns a +5.5 boost, but let’s say that we think they can cause an upset in this game. We can always reduce that line to +4.5 or even +3.5, and get great odds on the Browns. For longer odds on the Chiefs, we will have to increase the line to -6.5 or higher, which is asking a lot.
It is important to do your homework here, as the data all points to a Chiefs win, but the oddsmakers also fall into the habit of hyping up teams, which can lead to trap games. Especially when heavy favorites continuously beat the spread, and the sportsbooks get a bit carried away.
Find Value Among Handicap Markets
Just as it is important to look for good potential winners, you can also keep your eye on generous or highly inflated betting lines. Taking the example we made up above, where the Chiefs were assigned a spread of -5.5, if we think the Browns are not that far behind, you can always bet +5.5 on the Browns. Or, change the betting line for higher or lower odds, whichever you think is still reasonably manageable.
Big upsets may not come extremely often, but if you can catch them, there is a lot of money to be made. Here are some criteria to keep an eye out for.
- Winning Margin
- How Many Times the Team Beat the Spread
- H2H Records
- Injuries/Player Absences
- Home/Away Record
- Goals/Points Scored – or Points Differential
Soccer is quite a low scoring sport, meaning that handicaps can range from 1 up to around 4 or more. With NFL, you can find spreads up to 15, but generally sportsbooks assign anything from 1 up to around 8. NBA is a high-scoring sport, and spreads can easily go up to 25 points or more. Finding the right balance is difficult, but if you improve your handicap betting strategy there is a lot more money to be made than simply betting moneylines.
