We’ve already discussed the value that can be found backing horses at big prices in our blog post about pricewise but the tipster currently sitting at the top of our tipster table is Crackpot who selectively backs the 0-0 score line in football matches. His profit is almost double that of Pricewise and his ROI is currently a very impressive 27.25% and I think it’s worth investigating this strategy further.
Backing the 0-0 is a very unpopular strategy and laying the 0-0 is much more common. Let’s face it no one actually wants to watch a football match with no goals and few of us can remember the last 0-0 we watched. It is very rare that you hear of a barnstorming, exciting 0-0 football match! There is the odd exception and they do happen but they are very rare. A more popular option is the back the draw strategy, but in this guide, we will look at the pros and cons of backing the 0-0 draw.
Crackpot’s ROI is 27.25% after 189 bets
Crackpot has managed to find 24 0-0’s out of 189 which doesn’t sound particularly impressive. It is after all a strike rate of only 13.3%. With 0-0’s usually priced at 9.0 to 12.0 indicating a likely percentage of 8 to 11% this doesn’t seem like a huge edge but at these prices the effect is very powerful and his overall profit is 580.50 units (from a 10 unit stake). As mentioned earlier this is a return of 27.25%! To get profits of this kind from odds on selections would be more difficult to achieve and require much more capital.
Crackpots winning prices range from 6.5 to 19.0 (2 extremes) with the average price 11.2. His wins have come from all over Europe but the most fruitful has been England and France.
I decided to take a look at the 0-0 percentages from these 2 leagues in the last 5 seasons.
England – % of matches ending 0-0
| Prem | Champ | L1 | L2 | |
| 2008/09 | 11.05% | 9.6% | 5.8% | 7.79% |
| 2009/10 | 8.42% | 7.25% | 8.15% | 7.25% |
| 20010/11 | 6.58% | 7.25% | 5.8% | 8.7% |
| 20011/12 | 7.11% | 7.43% | 8.15% | 6.34% |
| 20012/13 | 9.21% | 6.7% | 6.88% | 8.88% |
| AVERAGE | 8.47% | 7.65% | 6.96% | 7.79% |
France – % of matches ending 0-0
| Ligue 1 | Ligue 2 | |
| 2008/09 | 10.53% | 10.26% |
| 2009/10 | 8.95% | 11.05% |
| 20010/11 | 11.58% | 11.05% |
| 20011/12 | 7.11% | 10.26% |
| 20012/13 | 8.68% | 10.79% |
| AVERAGE | 9.37% | 10.68% |
Over 10% of games finish 0-0 in Ligue 2
In England, the top division appears to be best for backing the 0-0 score line but in France, Ligue 2 is better than Ligue 1. I think this is down to the style of football that is played in England and the 0-0 scoreline is generally more likely in France who play more of a patient style of football. This then means that in lower divisions where strikers and attacking play poorer the 0-0 is more likely. I think this is likely to be the case in Italy too, as the Italian matches are often a game of chess and very tactically. The French second division is by far the best for backing the 0-0 with over 10% of matches finishing this way. If you can consistently get odds of 10.0 or more on the 0-0 in this league you should be in the money!
The final percentage varies a fair bit from season to season and one has to remember that a league season only consists of a few hundred games and each season on its own is not a big sample size. The variance with such bets is obviously pretty big and the losing streaks with such bets can be very demoralizing but by staking sensibly and not paying too much attention to the weekly P/L it’s possible to get some big returns on your investments. Remember Crackpots’ average price was 11.2 which indicates just over 9% likelihood of a 0-0. Across the 2 leagues, this looks pretty accurate with France slightly above this on average and England slightly below. So Crackpot doesn’t seem to be getting prices that are well above what they should be on average and it’s clear that being selective is important here.
Draw offers the best value on average
If the 0-0 result is too risky a game for you then perhaps try the draw. In a blog post I did a while back I proved that the draw is the most accurately priced outcome based on the best price available from the bookmakers for Premier League matches. There are some sites on the internet that says the draw doesn’t offer any better odds than any of the other two outcomes but the below suggests otherwise. Backing it blind would do you the least damage of the three selections and in the last two out of five seasons you would have made a slight profit. Backing the home win blindly was the next best with away wins proving to be the worst value on average. So if you are unsure about the outcome of a Premier League match go with the draw or failing that err on the home side.
Here are the stats I generated from football data to prove this. It shows the average implied percentage of the best odds available compared to the actual percentage of the outcome and the difference:
Home stats:
| Season | Avg Home Odds % | Actual Home % | Diff |
| 2008/09 | 46.16 | 45.53 | -0.63 |
| 2009/10 | 46.67 | 50.79 | +4.12 |
| 20010/11 | 46.61 | 47.11 | +0.5 |
| 20011/12 | 46.75 | 45 | -1.75 |
| 20012/13 | 46.69 | 43.68 | -3.01 |
| AVERAGE | 46.56 | 46.42 | -0.15 |
Away stats:
| Season | Avg Away Odds % | Actual Away % | Diff |
| 2008/09 | 29.68 | 28.95 | -0.73 |
| 2009/10 | 30.47 | 23.95 | -6.52 |
| 20010/11 | 29.11 | 23.68 | -5.43 |
| 20011/12 | 29.62 | 24.47 | -5.15 |
| 20012/13 | 29.98 | 27.89 | -2.09 |
| AVERAGE | 29.77 | 25.79 | -3.984 |
Draw stats:
| Season | Avg Draw Odds % | Actual Draw % | Diff |
| 2008/09 | 27.08 | 25.53 | -1.55 |
| 2009/10 | 25.82 | 25.26 | -0.56 |
| 20010/11 | 26.36 | 29.21 | +2.85 |
| 20011/12 | 25.59 | 24.47 | -1.12 |
| 20012/13 | 25.89 | 28.42 | +2.53 |
| AVERAGE | 26.15 | 26.58 | +0.43 |
Laying the 0-0 draw at half time
Plumping for the draw at half time of any football game is one of the most popular betting strategies out there. Many factors combine to make this a successful strategy. Some of these include doing some research and finding teams that either score goals or lose goals and tire during the second half. For example, for years, Manchester Utd were renowned for scoring late goals in ‘Fergie Time’ so predicting them to finish 0-0 at full time, even if the game is scoreless at half time, wouldn’t be the best choice. We have a separate guide that covers the late goals betting strategy that you should also read.
Another way to make this strategy work is to analyse the odds both before the match and then the live odds during the action. It is crucial that you follow the movements on bookmakers, which can give you a clearer overall picture. As I mentioned above, Ligue 2 is perfect for this kind of betting. The matches tend to be low scoring, so the draw is more likely and you can place your bet after just 45 minutes.
Pick the right match
This is key to backing the 0-0 or the draw for that matter. You need to be clued up on the leagues and teams you are betting on. For example, Liverpool are usually involved in high-scoring games with their high-pressing tempo style and high defensive line. Perhaps they may not be the best team to back in a 0-0 game. Look at newly promoted teams who typically will go defensive to try and get points where they can. Games between promoted teams especially tend to be cagey and close, so keep an eye out for them.
You need to find a suitable match where you are sure there won’t be a lot of goals.
Live Betting – Respond to Match Events
Live betting has taken the market by storm since operators introduced it as an option. It gives players the option to benefit from fluctuating odds so you can take advantage of the many opportunities a live game can present. For example, a big favourite might be losing with 2o minutes to go but are putting a lot of pressure on and you think they may score two late goals and winning. So you decide to stick some money on them winning at much better odds than they were before the game.
Watching a live stream of a game you can react to the events in real-time, allowing you to make an informed decision quickly and efficiently.
Make sure stakes can survive long losing runs
It is important to reiterate the importance of sensible staking when backing such unfavourable outcomes. You are going to experience long losing streaks so expect them and remain patient. It is likely that you will need to play with much lower stakes than you usually use. Not many of us can afford to keep putting £10 on our bets after 30 or 40 losses so think about what is a realistic amount for you to carry out this strategy. If you use Betfair you may want to take a look at our blog post that demonstrates how it’s possible to bet less than the £2 minimum stake on Betfair too.
I have access to all the data from football-data.co.uk stored in a database which I’m able to query in seconds. If anyone would like some more 0-0 stats or similar let me know and I can get these for you.
