The UEFA Nations League has come once again, breaking up the Serie A, EPL, Bundesliga, and La Liga action until November 23, the following Saturday. The international break feels poorly timed for Liverpool and Bayern, who have now increased their gap at the top, with their rivals all failing to hit 3 points last weekend.
Barca stumbled to a rare defeat against Real Sociedad, and the Italian Serie A went from a 2-team race to a 6-team race. The international break serves as a fantastic opportunity for bench warmer players to get some action, and this weekend I’m predicting a lot of players to step up to the mark and give us memorable performances. There is also a lot of good value for eagle-eyed bettors who want to cash in on the action.
UEFA Nations League Round 5-6 Games
The 5th round starts on November 14 (Thursday) and lasts until November 16 (Saturday). I’m more interested in Saturday, the last matches of round 5, and the first day of Round 6, on November 17 (Sunday). UEFA Nations League games are notoriously difficult to predict, as there is a lot of room for upsets, and underdogs to steal the show. Finding these underdogs and identifying which games they are most likely to come in and do their thing is a risky business, but it pays off handsomely.
Specifically, I’m talking about home advantage, players in form, and figuring out which world-class players, among the bigger teams, will be left out of any upcoming games. Here are the games I’m highlighting for this weekend’s accas.
| Nov 16 Round 5 | Nov 17 Round 6 |
|---|---|
| 17:00 | 17:00 |
| Turkey vs Wales | England vs Ireland |
| Georgia vs Ukraine | 19:45 |
| 19:45 | Italy vs France |
| Sweden vs Slovakia | |
| Netherlands vs Hungary |
Georgia vs Ukraine
Saturday, 17:00 @ Adjarabet Arena
In League B, Group 1, Georgia will host Ukraine. The group is still pretty open, though Ukraine has had the worst start. Ukraine will face Albania in their next game, whereas Georgia will play group leaders Czechia. Both teams need the win desperately, but I am leaning more towards Ukraine in this encounter.
Mykalo Mudryk has not been a regular starter for Chelsea, but he has steadily been improving his performances. The team has scored in all their games so far, but the defense seems to be a bit unreliable. Fortunately for the Ukrainians, Georgia is one of the lowest-scoring teams in the competition. Aside the 4-1 thrashing of Czechia at home, Georgia have only scored 1 goal in their past 3 games (in a 1-0 win against Albania). The best value here is on BTTS, betting specifically against it. Whoever gets the first goal should win the game, and I don’t see many goals going in for this one.
BTTS: No @ 5/6
Turkey vs Wales
Saturday, 17:00 @ Kadir Has Stadium
At the time of writing, Turkey is top of the League B Group 4 with 10 points, and Wales is in close second, just 2 points off the leaders. There are only 2 games left to play, and Turkey has to play bottom-placed Montenegro next, whereas Wales have to play Iceland, who are tricky to beat. When these two met in Wales, the game ended goalless, with Turkey going down to 10 men just over the hour mark.
Turkey changes up its roster quite regularly, from playing with a back 5 against Wales to a 5-line midfield and also 2 CDMs, giving me the impression the team are not afraid to mix things up. Turkey are the bookies’ favorite to win, but I think there is a serious possibility of the game ending in a draw. Wales are great underdogs in this game, and the only thing they missed in the previous H2H game was a confident finisher. Tottenham’s Brennan Johnson has been sharp for Spurs in his recent outings, and I think he can make a difference here.
Wales Draw No Bet @ 9/4
Netherlands vs Hungary
Saturday, 19:45 @ Johan Crujff ArenA
The Dutch team should win this one, based on the depth of quality in the squad. But when these two met in October, Hungary held the Netherlands to a 1-1 draw, with Virgil van Dijk seeing red in the 79th minute. Hungary led for over 50 minutes in the game, but now Hungary travel to the Netherlands.
The Dutch have to play Bosnia next, which seems like an easy one for the team, whereas Hungary goes up against Germany. But the Germans have all but won this group, so there is something to be said about the team resting their top players, giving Hungary a little hope in toppling the table leaders. But in reality, it is now or never for Hungary, as they are tied on points with the Netherlands, who have a better Goal Difference. It’s a 50-50 whether Hungary can score, but I think given the importance of the game, they should be able to put one past the Dutch defense.
BTTS: Yes @ 4/5
Sweden vs Slovakia
Saturday, 19:45 @ Friends Arena
Are we jumping on the hype around Viktor Gyokeres? Yes we are! The Swedish striker scored a hattrick against Man City, to secure a win for Sporting and honor departing manager Ruben Amorim. He is really something else, and Gyokeres has also had an impact in the UEFA Nations League, scoring 4 goals and making 3 assists.
Then, there are other top players to consider such as Spurs’ Dejak Kulusevski, Alexander Isak (Newcastle), Anthony Elanga (Not Forest), and Victor Lindelof (Man Utd). Sweden are top of League C Group 1, and tied on points with Slovakia. The top place guarantees promotion to League B, and this is the game in which the winner will be determined. Slovakia have their fair share of top tier players, and they held the Swedes to a 2-2 draw at home. Both teams are goal hungry, but I am going to bet on Sweden to get over the line here.
The game may not pan out to be as exciting as it promises to be, simply because so much is at stake. Don’t overcomplicate this one, Sweden should win. I wouldn’t advise using a handicap or trying a BTTS bet at this late stage.
Sweden Moneyline @ 8/13
England vs Ireland
Sunday, 17:00 @ Wembley Stadium
Ok, so there is a game between this one and now, but I wanted to cash in on the early odds. These are the last games for interim manager Lee Carsley, before Thomas Tuchel becomes the manager of the Three Lions, in January of 2025. The significance of that is in what the fringe players will do in the last games under the interim manager. Jack Grealish, Angel Gomes, Levi Colwill and Anthony Gordon are, in particular, the players who I think can make a big impact in these last few games. England won against Finland at home but lost to Greece 1-2, so this last game under Carsley at Wembley should be memorable.
England has scored in all their games, whereas Ireland have only scored against Finland (again). This stat looks amazing: England has not conceded in the first half, and Ireland has not scored (barring the midweek games). This is a confident win, either on England -1 Handicap or to Win HT / FT. The latter comes at better odds, and does not feel overly ambitious at all.
England Win Both Halves @ 7/5
Italy vs France
Sunday, 19:45 @ San Siro
And finally, this looks like one of the most interesting games of the weekend. Italy beat France in Paris earlier this year, winning 1-3. To make matters worse, France had taken the lead after just a minute, and they actually had more chances during the game. But there is something fierce about Italy right now, who beat Israel and drew to Belgium. While Italy gets the goals, I think their true source of strength lies in defense.
The team is quite young, but I like the look of Federico Dimarco, Sandro Tonali, and Alessandro Bastoni in the deeper midfield and defense. France have been scoring for fun in this competition and were quick to switch on following the embarrassing defeat to Italy. Whether they have Mbappe or not, I don’t think France will struggle to give the Italian defense something to fight. Bradley Barcola, Randal Kolo Muani, and Ousmane Dembele are all fast and threatening in the final third.
I expect the game to be tense, and Italy will fight like lions on their home turf. But I fancy France here to come in and Deschamps to field his most devastating side. On paper, France does have more star quality and squad depth, which Deschamps can definitely use to his advantage. Both teams will realistically score here, and I think the game will be decided in the final minutes. There, France should be able to power on to the win and secure a place at the top of the group.
BTTS and France Moneyline @ 18/5
BettingTools Nations League Nov 16-17 Accas
Sweden beating Slovakia and only 1 team to score in the game between Georgia and Ukraine are the confident bets in the first acca. These two bets have a good likelihood of coming through and are well priced. It’s the other two that feel a little on the risky side.
Hungary will need to come up with something special to put a goal past the Netherlands, but they have done it before. Wales beating Turkey is a big call, but you won’t be risking it all, as this is a draw no bet. Should the in-form Welsh players get a goal or two, the bet should come through.
The other two games on Sunday have an equally risk parlay. The main focus on the England vs Ireland bet is what England will do in the first half. They have to win, and given the opportunity in Wembley, the Three Lions should entertain the crowd with a few goals. Italy vs France can go either way, but given the French resilience following their defeat at home to Italy, they should bounce back here quite well.
If you want to change any of the picks, or think that I have missed a good opportunity in any of these games, please reach out to our Twitter (X) and post your selection. I have tried numerous combinations using our acca odds calculator, and these selections had tremendous returns, but you may want to adjust the accas and selections to meet your preferences.
